4 ms·

There will be the standard range battery model released later this year with a $35,000 price tag. In the U.S. after the $7,500 federal tax credit, the final pri

by mcot2 8y ago

There will be the standard range battery model released later this year with a $35,000 price tag. In the U.S. after the $7,500 federal tax credit, the final price should be well below $30,000. Tesla is focusing on producing the higher priced versions first in order to have the cash flow to produce the standard model. If Tesla wanted to start with producing the standard model first, they probably would have needed a very large cash infusion with unfavorable terms. There are definitely conflicting opinions on this but they have chosen a slightly more conservative route in order to not put the business at risk. The end result is we have to wait a bit longer for the standard model, and as such some people may feel obliged to cancel their order, or even be upsold to a more expensive model 3 or even an S/X.

bronson 8y ago
Do you think the tax credit will still be around by the time Tesla ships a $35000 model 3? That's going to be a narrow buying window!
- mcot2 8y ago
  Probably not the full credit, unless you have a spot in line already. The phase out starts during the quarter when the company hits 200,000 total deliveries. If we assume this is going to be July 1st, then the $7,500 credit is good for Q3 and Q4. This takes us to December 31st. At this point, the credit is reduced to $3,750 for 6 months and then to $1,875 for 6 months. Using a lot of speculation and extrapolation, I would estimate that if someone placed an order now and wanted a standard model they would still probably be able to hit either the $3,750 or $1,875 credits.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    It's worth noting that the sense of a lot of media is that Congress is going to remove the cap before GM hits it, which is not so different from when Tesla is going to hit it. And before you think it's a partisan thing, there is significant quiet Republican support for the credit.
    - mcot2 8y ago
      Yes, I think it is because it will be kind of weird when U.S. automakers GM and Tesla hit the cap first and they are at a “disadvantage” as compared to the European and Asian automakers.

by mcot2 8y ago

bronson 8y ago

Do you think the tax credit will still be around by the time Tesla ships a $35000 model 3? That's going to be a narrow buying window!

mcot2 8y ago
Probably not the full credit, unless you have a spot in line already. The phase out starts during the quarter when the company hits 200,000 total deliveries. If we assume this is going to be July 1st, then the $7,500 credit is good for Q3 and Q4. This takes us to December 31st. At this point, the credit is reduced to $3,750 for 6 months and then to $1,875 for 6 months. Using a lot of speculation and extrapolation, I would estimate that if someone placed an order now and wanted a standard model they would still probably be able to hit either the $3,750 or $1,875 credits.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  It's worth noting that the sense of a lot of media is that Congress is going to remove the cap before GM hits it, which is not so different from when Tesla is going to hit it. And before you think it's a partisan thing, there is significant quiet Republican support for the credit.
  - mcot2 8y ago
    Yes, I think it is because it will be kind of weird when U.S. automakers GM and Tesla hit the cap first and they are at a “disadvantage” as compared to the European and Asian automakers.