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Do you really think that a lot of people who reserved a $35.000 car decided to go with a Model S that costs more than twice as much? I think it's more likely t

Do you really think that a lot of people who reserved a $35.000 car decided to go with a Model S that costs more than twice as much? I think it's more likely that a lot of people realised that they aren't getting a $35.000 car any time soon, and bought something in their price range instead. I reserved a Model 3, but I'm becoming sceptical that I'll ever be able to afford it. Right now they are selling it for $50.000, and it doesn't look like it's moving into my price range any time soon.

pooya13 8y ago
From Musk's tweets, it appears it won't be before they hit 10k per week.
greglindahl 8y ago
A few are buying new S, more are buying used Ses, some don't want to wait and bought something else. BTW, the rollout of lower-priced 3's is being done exactly the same as model S and model X: while they're production constrained, Tesla ships the higher-priced models only. The smaller battery Model S shipped a year after the first S rolled off the line. Between that and not being an existing owner or employee, I'm not sure why you thought you'd get the lowest price version so soon?
- dangrossman 8y ago
  Because Tesla consistently said the rollout would not happen like the S and X. They promised the $35K base model in "early 2018", on the Model 3 configurator, on the Model 3 delivery estimates, and in Elon Musk's tweets. All of those sources consistently said that it would be coming in early 2018, and it would be coming BEFORE the dual motor or performance versions... right up until last month when Elon announced that wasn't going to be happening after all.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    They said that the rollout would be way steeper than S and X. The mind boggles that you thought they'd hit that rollout target! They're always late.
    - dangrossman 8y ago
      I haven't said anything about hitting rollout targets. That's a separate issue from changing the order of production. Regardless of when it happens, the base model is no longer being produced before the D/P models, which was what they promised was going to happen regardless of the ramp rate. It would have been reasonable for someone, like the person you were talking to, to expect Tesla to produce the trims in the order they promised to do so for over 2 years, rather than the order in which they purportedly offered the S/X. We should hope they're not replicating the Model S's rollout, in which the base model was never physically produced (they shipped a small number of software-limited batteries instead), and was removed from the configurator soon after it was introduced.
      - greglindahl 8y ago
        So you're saying Tesla should have produced the base model S40 even though almost no one ordered it, and it would have been a loss compared to giving people more expensive cars with a software limit? OK then.
        dangrossman 8y ago
        > So you're saying Tesla should have... I didn't say that, and I don't have an opinion on what Tesla should have done 6 years ago. There's a pattern in this little comment chain of you criticizing people for beliefs they never expressed, or for saying something they never said. You're having conversations with yourself under the guise of replying to others. It's a little strange.
hndamien 8y ago
I think this is the most likely reality.

pooya13 8y ago

From Musk's tweets, it appears it won't be before they hit 10k per week.

greglindahl 8y ago

A few are buying new S, more are buying used Ses, some don't want to wait and bought something else. BTW, the rollout of lower-priced 3's is being done exactly the same as model S and model X: while they're production constrained, Tesla ships the higher-priced models only. The smaller battery Model S shipped a year after the first S rolled off the line. Between that and not being an existing owner or employee, I'm not sure why you thought you'd get the lowest price version so soon?

dangrossman 8y ago
Because Tesla consistently said the rollout would not happen like the S and X. They promised the $35K base model in "early 2018", on the Model 3 configurator, on the Model 3 delivery estimates, and in Elon Musk's tweets. All of those sources consistently said that it would be coming in early 2018, and it would be coming BEFORE the dual motor or performance versions... right up until last month when Elon announced that wasn't going to be happening after all.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  They said that the rollout would be way steeper than S and X. The mind boggles that you thought they'd hit that rollout target! They're always late.
  - dangrossman 8y ago
    I haven't said anything about hitting rollout targets. That's a separate issue from changing the order of production. Regardless of when it happens, the base model is no longer being produced before the D/P models, which was what they promised was going to happen regardless of the ramp rate. It would have been reasonable for someone, like the person you were talking to, to expect Tesla to produce the trims in the order they promised to do so for over 2 years, rather than the order in which they purportedly offered the S/X. We should hope they're not replicating the Model S's rollout, in which the base model was never physically produced (they shipped a small number of software-limited batteries instead), and was removed from the configurator soon after it was introduced.
    - greglindahl 8y ago
      So you're saying Tesla should have produced the base model S40 even though almost no one ordered it, and it would have been a loss compared to giving people more expensive cars with a software limit? OK then.
      - dangrossman 8y ago
        > So you're saying Tesla should have... I didn't say that, and I don't have an opinion on what Tesla should have done 6 years ago. There's a pattern in this little comment chain of you criticizing people for beliefs they never expressed, or for saying something they never said. You're having conversations with yourself under the guise of replying to others. It's a little strange.

hndamien 8y ago

I think this is the most likely reality.