18 months doesn’t seem enough. It seems we need some tech philanthropists to stump up a sizable sum to run a serious longitudinal study. Pick 2,000 random peop

18 months doesn’t seem enough. It seems we need some tech philanthropists to stump up a sizable sum to run a serious longitudinal study. Pick 2,000 random people, split into trial and control group. Match between the trial and control group for age control, and aim to have a sizable sample at both age 18 and ages above, so we can see what happens to people already in workforce. Those about to enter it. So on. The trial group will be guaranteed $10,000 per year until retirement. The control group will be given a suitable payment for participation - completing the quarterly surveys and annual health exams. Maybe $50 for each survery and health exam plus make the health exam free if they don’t have insurance. This would cost about $200-250 million. It can be put into trust and an annuity so lucky participants know it’s really going to last. To answer the question of whether and how much expected duration affects actions of participants create two or three more smaller groups that get the $10,000 for 2 years, and five years, and ten years. Now you can see how behavior varies between them. This is the only way to answer the UBI question, until it’s done we’ll have endless debates about stuff like “people will just decide not to work” etc.