4 ms·
I would not panic over this just yet. It is deeply concerning, but there are some mitigating factors: - Population growth is slowing. - Per capita CO2
by asfasgasg 8y ago
I would not panic over this just yet. It is deeply concerning, but there are some mitigating factors:
- Population growth is slowing.
- Per capita CO2 emissions are falling.
- Good reason to believe this trend will continue.
Another issue is the magnitude of the effects postulated in the paper. 600->1000 ppm showed 10-20% decreases in cognitive scores on tests during short term exposure. That's huge, but it's important to remember that it took almost 40 years to go from 350->400 (which is roughly where we are today). Emissions growth has been slowing, and I guess despite the US President's best efforts, will probably start falling some time in the next few years. So it may take even longer to get to 500, 600.
http://www.acer-acre.ca/resources/climate-change-in-context/introduction-2/global/scientific-projections/projections-for-carbon-dioxide http://www.acer-acre.ca/resources/climate-change-in-context/...
This includes some projections, and the graph looks scary, but make sure to look at the bottom of the page to see what each scenario entails, and try to judge what you think is most likely.
- tgtweak 8y agoEven a few percentage points should be enough to cause concern at a global scale.
- creaghpatr 8y agoCouldn't we measure this against aggregate trends in cognitive scoring across different regions over time?
- antisthenes 8y agoMost of the cognitive work is done inside buildings, where concentrations are higher anyway, so looking at atmospheric CO2 is almost irrelevant. You can have a properly ventilated building at 1000 atmospheric CO2, and end up with an indoor concentration of 1200ppm; likewise many buildings today have concentrations of 2000+ppm with atmospheric CO2 hovering around 400. That's not to say it's not going to get worse and much worse. But it will take a few human generations to get to that point.