5 ms·

The only “axe” I have to grind is the one I clearly stated: Gitlab is salting the earth for dev tools. You can’t build a business competing with someone who is

by irq11 8y ago

The only “axe” I have to grind is the one I clearly stated: Gitlab is salting the earth for dev tools. You can’t build a business competing with someone who is using VC money to give away their product. This is all going to end badly when the music stops. ”can something be non-profitable for a decade and still be called a business?” This is such a bizarre talking point...do you honestly believe that Gitlab is a better business? Their model is “just like Github, but with even more stuff given away for free!” And let’s not forget that Github has to compete with Gitlab cannibalizing the low end of the market. I’m sure that hurts margins. Someone has to pay those Gitlab engineers who are writing the bulk of the code. At the very least, as soon as the dumb money dries up, the velocity of development on Gitlab will drop like a rock. In the worst case, you’ll get an conflicted corporate hydra, like mysql.

Jedd 8y ago
I understand that you're claiming gitlab is salting the earth, but still don't understand why / how. You write: > You can’t build a business competing with someone who is using VC money to give away their product. This is delightfully worded, given it could apply to both github and gitlab. Remembering that github started in 2008, while gitlab.com started four years later (first commit to their codebase was 2011). Github is running on $350m of VC funding. In response to my question 'can you call a 10yo company that still isn't profitable, a "business"?', you avoided the question, called the matter bizarre, and tried to distract from the question by claiming github is a _better_ business. Your claim that github has 'built a business and .. gave back generously' is also weird in that gitlab has released the source to their core product, but github hasn't. This also speaks against your claim that you're more likely to be abandoned if you commit to gitlab than github. Finally, the idea that the 'low end of the market' is where all the money is does not match any other tech startup's experience, is belied by the pricing structure of both companies, and further invalidated by the fact that gitlab is not swimming in cash from their cornering of the frugal user segment.
- dnomad 8y ago
  > Github is running on $350m of VC funding. Gitlab is also running on a bunch of VC money. > In response to my question 'can you call a 10yo company that still isn't profitable, a "business"?' Gitlab also likely runs at a loss. Gitlab has certainly never claimed to be profitable and some estimates are that as few as .1% of their customers pay for Gitlab. > I understand that you're claiming gitlab is salting the earth, but still don't understand why / how. It's pretty clear to me at least that neither Github nor Gitlab have sustainable business models. The OSS community is crazy to think that either business will continue to subsidize OSS development while losing millions of dollars a year. All of the anger against Github and the new "faith" in Gitlab is pure delusion. Both these companies subsidize OSS development while losing millions of dollars. This will go on until it stops. It certainly can't go on forever. Personally I suspect the absolutely best thing to happen to both Github and Gitlab would be being bought out by real companies that heavily depend upon OSS and, you know, actually make money. It came up before and now the chatter has started up again around Gitlab. I think it still makes a lot of sense for AWS to purchase Gitlab. There's a fundamental strategy alignment there (both Gitlab and Amazon aim to be a "one stop shop"), Gitlab offers the potential to lure a bunch of developers into the AWS platform with a free offering and, ultimately, Gitlab offers the same computational economics as other Amazon products because it is just another hosted product that requires a database. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see such a transaction in as little as 2-3 years.
  - Jedd 8y ago
    > Gitlab is also running on a bunch of VC money. That is what I said.
  - guiriduro 8y ago
    I would say gitlab is more closely aligned with Google, at least technically, with their auto DevOps targeting kubernetes, and Google cloud having the most 'turnkey' k8s offering.
    - justincormack 8y ago
      That would align with Red Hat, as would the open source.
- lmeyerov 8y ago
  If you're a HN reader, I highly recommend Jason Lemkin's writings. Gitlab is a classic case of a bottom feeder late follower: https://www.saastr.com/dont-confuse-room-at-the-bottom-with-disruption/ https://www.saastr.com/dont-confuse-room-at-the-bottom-with-... . And what that means is, yeah, either they keep burning $$$ every month and selling more of the control to VCs to feed the war chest until they maybe buy 2nd place, find an acquirer (and with that much ever-increasing VC control, a likely push), or yeah, layoffs will happen. Gitlab is extra interesting because their definition of innovation is biting off even more surface area (e.g., CI), and therefore even more burn. Keep in mind.. all this says zero about how nice the product quality is or how friendly the people are. But just in the same way you don't get mad at what happens if you stick your hand in a lawn mower (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zRN7XLCRhc&t=34m7s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zRN7XLCRhc&t=34m7s) ... there are financial forces at play from being a high-spending bottom feeder that are hard to escape. Possible, and I wish them luck, but that's a real bet.
  - fnord123 8y ago
    AFAIK, Github went for growth. Gitlab went for cash flow. Gitlab is profitable and, imo, their product is comprehensively superior to Github. >Keep in mind.. all this says zero about how nice the product quality is or how friendly the people are. Then don't use the term bottom feeder since that means the people are making a shitty product with no ethics to really innovate. It says the people are shameful hacks and the quality of the product is bad. In reality Gitlab is a better product and the people involved should be proud of their work.
    - lmeyerov 8y ago
      I don't think their official statements match that? They say their fundraising approach is 2yr runway, which is only 6mo longer than the advice for a regular VC-backed startup, and they've been raising increasing amounts ~annually. Based on that, having 275+ employees, and their stated IPO targets, I ran the numbers recently. My guess was their costs are ~$40M year (admirable: I expected way higher but they focus on non-US hires and pay only 50% percentile in _local_ markets: super low!). Likewise, their stated IPO and growth targets make me guess they make ~$20M/yr. So two different reasons to believe they're burning... ~$20M/yr. The positive thing for them, which they're not public about but I'd guess, is while they're probably growing OK in regular accounts (hard competition vs bitbucket, github, etc.), they're probably Super Great on retention + internal expansion, so net negative churn, compounding factors, etc. I think they _can_ stop hiring and let revenue catch up, though other forces take hold then: so it does look like they're on the classic growth-over-control VC treadmill (despite saying they're not), and will keep ceding control to VCs.
- irq11 8y ago
  ”Your claim that github has 'built a business and .. gave back generously' is also weird in that gitlab has released the source to their core product, but github hasn't. This also speaks against your claim that you're more likely to be abandoned if you commit to gitlab than github.” Uh...Gitlab is built upon libgit2, rugged and github-linguist. In other words, the core parts of Gitlab — the ones that interact with git are built, maintained and open-sourced by GitHub. And these are just the obvious dependencies. Github people contribute heavily to open-source projects that most Ruby websites use. If you’re going to fanboy all over the place, fine, but at least know what you’re talking about when you do it. And don’t try to weasel out of it by talking about “core products” —- without GitHub’s substantial technical contributions to the infrastructural code that interacts with git, it’s a safe bet thst Gitlab wouldn’t exist. That’s core.
  - Jedd 8y ago
    Wow. I feel you've certainly made a point. Originally you declared: > If you want nice things, you have to pay for them. And I don't know how that fits in with people releasing / maintaining free software. I responded to your first rant because you appeared to be 'going all fanboy' over github, declaring them a successful, superior business. I asked you if a company that hadn't turned a profit despite first mover advantage and a decade of trying could be termed a business ... and you weaselled out of that question.
    - irq11 8y ago
      I answered you, you just ignored the answer: yes. If you believe Github isn’t a business, then you’re going to be sorely disappointed by Gitlab, whose business model is worse. I’m done talking to you now.
      - Jedd 8y ago
        > If you believe Github isn’t a business, then you’re going to be sorely disappointed by Gitlab, whose business model is worse. The challenge discussing this with you is all your comments about Github are based around comparing them (favourably) to Gitlab. > I'm done talking to you now. This is a shame, as I'm consumed with curiosity on your take of today's news that Microsoft spent US$7b buying github. From what you've described it sounds like they should have just cloned libgit2, rugged, and github-linguist, and rattled up their own gitlab over the weekend.
jjeaff 8y ago
MySQL is a great example. Bought by Oracle, still a good product, but also forked by some big players as well as some open source groups. I'm sure it is still the most commonly used database on the web today and Mariadb and percona both maintain great MySQL forks as well.
- stephenr 8y ago
  The MariaDB story is a bit of a fuck you though - cries about how oracle will close mysql (which hasn’t happened) but then adopts a bullshit license for its own software. But the damage is already done - people think MariaDB is some bastion of good intentions and open source software now, because they very rarely look deeper.
  - Jedd 8y ago
    > The MariaDB story is a bit of a fuck you though - cries about how oracle will close mysql (which hasn’t happened) but then adopts a bullshit license for its own software. What? There was strong precedent for fearing what may happen with MySQL. Knowledge of what happened to Hudson, OES, OpenOffice, Solaris ... this would concern the stewards of any bit of software that got swallowed up by Oracle. (Edit: Also I recall some worrying stories coming out from Monty and other key developers.) What's this 'bullshit licence' that MariaDB has? I thought the source was (L)GPL all the way down?
    - stephenr 8y ago
      Lookup MariaDB MaxScale.
      - Jedd 8y ago
        > Lookup MariaDB MaxScale. This is like a scavenger hunt. I've looked up MariaDB MaxScale ... and found an optional / add-on product that is aimed at Enterprises, seems to require an Enterprise support licence for the Enterprise edition of MariaDB ... and I completely fail to see how any of this demonstrates that the 'MariaDB story is a bit of a fuck you'.

by irq11 8y ago

Jedd 8y ago

I understand that you're claiming gitlab is salting the earth, but still don't understand why / how. You write: > You can’t build a business competing with someone who is using VC money to give away their product. This is delightfully worded, given it could apply to both github and gitlab. Remembering that github started in 2008, while gitlab.com started four years later (first commit to their codebase was 2011). Github is running on $350m of VC funding. In response to my question 'can you call a 10yo company that still isn't profitable, a "business"?', you avoided the question, called the matter bizarre, and tried to distract from the question by claiming github is a _better_ business. Your claim that github has 'built a business and .. gave back generously' is also weird in that gitlab has released the source to their core product, but github hasn't. This also speaks against your claim that you're more likely to be abandoned if you commit to gitlab than github. Finally, the idea that the 'low end of the market' is where all the money is does not match any other tech startup's experience, is belied by the pricing structure of both companies, and further invalidated by the fact that gitlab is not swimming in cash from their cornering of the frugal user segment.

dnomad 8y ago
> Github is running on $350m of VC funding. Gitlab is also running on a bunch of VC money. > In response to my question 'can you call a 10yo company that still isn't profitable, a "business"?' Gitlab also likely runs at a loss. Gitlab has certainly never claimed to be profitable and some estimates are that as few as .1% of their customers pay for Gitlab. > I understand that you're claiming gitlab is salting the earth, but still don't understand why / how. It's pretty clear to me at least that neither Github nor Gitlab have sustainable business models. The OSS community is crazy to think that either business will continue to subsidize OSS development while losing millions of dollars a year. All of the anger against Github and the new "faith" in Gitlab is pure delusion. Both these companies subsidize OSS development while losing millions of dollars. This will go on until it stops. It certainly can't go on forever. Personally I suspect the absolutely best thing to happen to both Github and Gitlab would be being bought out by real companies that heavily depend upon OSS and, you know, actually make money. It came up before and now the chatter has started up again around Gitlab. I think it still makes a lot of sense for AWS to purchase Gitlab. There's a fundamental strategy alignment there (both Gitlab and Amazon aim to be a "one stop shop"), Gitlab offers the potential to lure a bunch of developers into the AWS platform with a free offering and, ultimately, Gitlab offers the same computational economics as other Amazon products because it is just another hosted product that requires a database. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see such a transaction in as little as 2-3 years.
- Jedd 8y ago
  > Gitlab is also running on a bunch of VC money. That is what I said.
- guiriduro 8y ago
  I would say gitlab is more closely aligned with Google, at least technically, with their auto DevOps targeting kubernetes, and Google cloud having the most 'turnkey' k8s offering.
  - justincormack 8y ago
    That would align with Red Hat, as would the open source.
lmeyerov 8y ago
If you're a HN reader, I highly recommend Jason Lemkin's writings. Gitlab is a classic case of a bottom feeder late follower: https://www.saastr.com/dont-confuse-room-at-the-bottom-with-disruption/ https://www.saastr.com/dont-confuse-room-at-the-bottom-with-... . And what that means is, yeah, either they keep burning $$$ every month and selling more of the control to VCs to feed the war chest until they maybe buy 2nd place, find an acquirer (and with that much ever-increasing VC control, a likely push), or yeah, layoffs will happen. Gitlab is extra interesting because their definition of innovation is biting off even more surface area (e.g., CI), and therefore even more burn. Keep in mind.. all this says zero about how nice the product quality is or how friendly the people are. But just in the same way you don't get mad at what happens if you stick your hand in a lawn mower (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zRN7XLCRhc&t=34m7s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zRN7XLCRhc&t=34m7s) ... there are financial forces at play from being a high-spending bottom feeder that are hard to escape. Possible, and I wish them luck, but that's a real bet.
- fnord123 8y ago
  AFAIK, Github went for growth. Gitlab went for cash flow. Gitlab is profitable and, imo, their product is comprehensively superior to Github. >Keep in mind.. all this says zero about how nice the product quality is or how friendly the people are. Then don't use the term bottom feeder since that means the people are making a shitty product with no ethics to really innovate. It says the people are shameful hacks and the quality of the product is bad. In reality Gitlab is a better product and the people involved should be proud of their work.
  - lmeyerov 8y ago
    I don't think their official statements match that? They say their fundraising approach is 2yr runway, which is only 6mo longer than the advice for a regular VC-backed startup, and they've been raising increasing amounts ~annually. Based on that, having 275+ employees, and their stated IPO targets, I ran the numbers recently. My guess was their costs are ~$40M year (admirable: I expected way higher but they focus on non-US hires and pay only 50% percentile in _local_ markets: super low!). Likewise, their stated IPO and growth targets make me guess they make ~$20M/yr. So two different reasons to believe they're burning... ~$20M/yr. The positive thing for them, which they're not public about but I'd guess, is while they're probably growing OK in regular accounts (hard competition vs bitbucket, github, etc.), they're probably Super Great on retention + internal expansion, so net negative churn, compounding factors, etc. I think they _can_ stop hiring and let revenue catch up, though other forces take hold then: so it does look like they're on the classic growth-over-control VC treadmill (despite saying they're not), and will keep ceding control to VCs.
irq11 8y ago
”Your claim that github has 'built a business and .. gave back generously' is also weird in that gitlab has released the source to their core product, but github hasn't. This also speaks against your claim that you're more likely to be abandoned if you commit to gitlab than github.” Uh...Gitlab is built upon libgit2, rugged and github-linguist. In other words, the core parts of Gitlab — the ones that interact with git are built, maintained and open-sourced by GitHub. And these are just the obvious dependencies. Github people contribute heavily to open-source projects that most Ruby websites use. If you’re going to fanboy all over the place, fine, but at least know what you’re talking about when you do it. And don’t try to weasel out of it by talking about “core products” —- without GitHub’s substantial technical contributions to the infrastructural code that interacts with git, it’s a safe bet thst Gitlab wouldn’t exist. That’s core.
- Jedd 8y ago
  Wow. I feel you've certainly made a point. Originally you declared: > If you want nice things, you have to pay for them. And I don't know how that fits in with people releasing / maintaining free software. I responded to your first rant because you appeared to be 'going all fanboy' over github, declaring them a successful, superior business. I asked you if a company that hadn't turned a profit despite first mover advantage and a decade of trying could be termed a business ... and you weaselled out of that question.
  - irq11 8y ago
    I answered you, you just ignored the answer: yes. If you believe Github isn’t a business, then you’re going to be sorely disappointed by Gitlab, whose business model is worse. I’m done talking to you now.
    - Jedd 8y ago
      > If you believe Github isn’t a business, then you’re going to be sorely disappointed by Gitlab, whose business model is worse. The challenge discussing this with you is all your comments about Github are based around comparing them (favourably) to Gitlab. > I'm done talking to you now. This is a shame, as I'm consumed with curiosity on your take of today's news that Microsoft spent US$7b buying github. From what you've described it sounds like they should have just cloned libgit2, rugged, and github-linguist, and rattled up their own gitlab over the weekend.

jjeaff 8y ago

MySQL is a great example. Bought by Oracle, still a good product, but also forked by some big players as well as some open source groups. I'm sure it is still the most commonly used database on the web today and Mariadb and percona both maintain great MySQL forks as well.

stephenr 8y ago
The MariaDB story is a bit of a fuck you though - cries about how oracle will close mysql (which hasn’t happened) but then adopts a bullshit license for its own software. But the damage is already done - people think MariaDB is some bastion of good intentions and open source software now, because they very rarely look deeper.
- Jedd 8y ago
  > The MariaDB story is a bit of a fuck you though - cries about how oracle will close mysql (which hasn’t happened) but then adopts a bullshit license for its own software. What? There was strong precedent for fearing what may happen with MySQL. Knowledge of what happened to Hudson, OES, OpenOffice, Solaris ... this would concern the stewards of any bit of software that got swallowed up by Oracle. (Edit: Also I recall some worrying stories coming out from Monty and other key developers.) What's this 'bullshit licence' that MariaDB has? I thought the source was (L)GPL all the way down?
  - stephenr 8y ago
    Lookup MariaDB MaxScale.
    - Jedd 8y ago
      > Lookup MariaDB MaxScale. This is like a scavenger hunt. I've looked up MariaDB MaxScale ... and found an optional / add-on product that is aimed at Enterprises, seems to require an Enterprise support licence for the Enterprise edition of MariaDB ... and I completely fail to see how any of this demonstrates that the 'MariaDB story is a bit of a fuck you'.