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> Once you're poor, it's very hard to get out of poverty. What % of people born in poverty are not poor by the time they are 30 ? Does anyone have that number

> Once you're poor, it's very hard to get out of poverty. What % of people born in poverty are not poor by the time they are 30 ? Does anyone have that number ? My intuition is that the number is higher.

bytematic 8y ago
You think that a majority of people make it out of poverty by 30? If someone thought that, they have a very closed off view of the world, even the U.S.
acover 8y ago
I don't know if this is a reputable source, however it claims in the USA 40% of men raised in the bottom fifth end up in the bottom fifth. That is about 4x as likely as a man in the top fifth.[0] This is much lower than I expected. [0] - https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/01/social-mobility-america/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/01/social-mobili...
- gizmo686 8y ago
  40% is only 2x as likely as random chance. Still, I am not sure that the bottom 5th is what we want to be looking at. I would like the think that the insidious effects of poverty don't start until well below the 1/5 mark.
  - acover 8y ago
    It seems to say that the to be in the bottom fifth in the US household income must be less than $22,095 (2001)[0]. That's very close to the federal poverty line. Not exactly but close. The way news an documentaries talk about the poverty trap I was expecting 80%+. [0] - http://ftp.iza.org/dp1938.pdf http://ftp.iza.org/dp1938.pdf
    - gizmo686 8y ago
      Adjusting for inflation, that would be $31,615 in todays dollars, or about 150% the poverty level for a family of 3. Not great, but I would still expect someone at that level to have substantially better odds than someone below the poverty line.
      - acover 8y ago
        The poverty line for a family of 3 was $14,630. So you are basically right. Remember it includes all the people below that level.
  - jononor 8y ago
    Half of Americans don't even have the savings to front a 400USD emergency bill. I'd say that's a pretty unrobust economic situation. Shit does happen, and not having the money to deal with it will cause more problems.
    - danielvf 8y ago
      That oft quoted stat is a bad interpretation of a survey question that asked “How would you pay for an unexpected $400 expense?” with one choice being “from a savings account”. That’s not the same thing at all as having the money at all - for example, many in the upper 50% would just use their debit card, or put it on a credit card for a month for frequent flyer miles.
  - zamfi 8y ago
    > 40% is only 2x as likely as random chance. That’s an interesting way of looking at it. Would 100% be only 5x as likely as random chance?

bytematic 8y ago

You think that a majority of people make it out of poverty by 30? If someone thought that, they have a very closed off view of the world, even the U.S.

acover 8y ago

I don't know if this is a reputable source, however it claims in the USA 40% of men raised in the bottom fifth end up in the bottom fifth. That is about 4x as likely as a man in the top fifth.[0] This is much lower than I expected. [0] - https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/01/social-mobility-america/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/01/social-mobili...

gizmo686 8y ago
40% is only 2x as likely as random chance. Still, I am not sure that the bottom 5th is what we want to be looking at. I would like the think that the insidious effects of poverty don't start until well below the 1/5 mark.
- acover 8y ago
  It seems to say that the to be in the bottom fifth in the US household income must be less than $22,095 (2001)[0]. That's very close to the federal poverty line. Not exactly but close. The way news an documentaries talk about the poverty trap I was expecting 80%+. [0] - http://ftp.iza.org/dp1938.pdf http://ftp.iza.org/dp1938.pdf
  - gizmo686 8y ago
    Adjusting for inflation, that would be $31,615 in todays dollars, or about 150% the poverty level for a family of 3. Not great, but I would still expect someone at that level to have substantially better odds than someone below the poverty line.
    - acover 8y ago
      The poverty line for a family of 3 was $14,630. So you are basically right. Remember it includes all the people below that level.
- jononor 8y ago
  Half of Americans don't even have the savings to front a 400USD emergency bill. I'd say that's a pretty unrobust economic situation. Shit does happen, and not having the money to deal with it will cause more problems.
  - danielvf 8y ago
    That oft quoted stat is a bad interpretation of a survey question that asked “How would you pay for an unexpected $400 expense?” with one choice being “from a savings account”. That’s not the same thing at all as having the money at all - for example, many in the upper 50% would just use their debit card, or put it on a credit card for a month for frequent flyer miles.
- zamfi 8y ago
  > 40% is only 2x as likely as random chance. That’s an interesting way of looking at it. Would 100% be only 5x as likely as random chance?