3 ms·

First of all, I do not understand why you would argue that I don't understand the article because I supposedly claim that the test has no predictive power, sinc

First of all, I do not understand why you would argue that I don't understand the article because I supposedly claim that the test has no predictive power, since I literally write "the Marshmallow test still is predictive". Furthermore, Smaug123's explanation here is flawed: > Assuming the trait is either heritable or culturally imbued (and intuitively it seems very likely that at least one of those is true), it makes sense that rich parents are more likely to have children who are either natively or culturally high in The Desire To Pass Tests The reason it does not make sense in this context is the very thing you cite yourself: when controlled for socio-economic background, the predictive power disappears. If the predictive power of the Marshmallow test could be ascribed to character traits, controlling to socio-economic backgrounds should enhance the signal of the predictive power, not remove it altogether.

chronial 8y ago
> If the predictive power of the Marshmallow test could be ascribed to character traits, controlling to socio-economic backgrounds should enhance the signal of the predictive power, not remove it altogether. This might be the source of the misunderstanding: What you say would only be true if character traits and socioeconomic background were uncorrelated, which is the opposite of what smaug suggested.
- mortehu 8y ago
  If the relationship is `y=x₀+x₁+𝓝`, then x₀ is more strongly correlated to `y-x₁` than it is to `y` alone. This holds even if x₀ and x₁ are strongly correlated, as long as they're not 100% correlated.
  - chronial 8y ago
    If y = x_0 and x_1 = x_0 + N, then y = x_1 - N. Then y and x_1 are highly correlated. But y - x_0 = 0 – which is not correlated to x_1 at all. y is "success" x_0 is "socioeconomic background" x_1 is "result of the marshmallow test"
    - mortehu 8y ago
      The question isn't whether you can produce absurd example models where "What [vanderZwan says] would only be true if character traits and socioeconomic background were uncorrelated", it's whether it holds in general.

chronial 8y ago

> If the predictive power of the Marshmallow test could be ascribed to character traits, controlling to socio-economic backgrounds should enhance the signal of the predictive power, not remove it altogether. This might be the source of the misunderstanding: What you say would only be true if character traits and socioeconomic background were uncorrelated, which is the opposite of what smaug suggested.

mortehu 8y ago
If the relationship is `y=x₀+x₁+𝓝`, then x₀ is more strongly correlated to `y-x₁` than it is to `y` alone. This holds even if x₀ and x₁ are strongly correlated, as long as they're not 100% correlated.
- chronial 8y ago
  If y = x_0 and x_1 = x_0 + N, then y = x_1 - N. Then y and x_1 are highly correlated. But y - x_0 = 0 – which is not correlated to x_1 at all. y is "success" x_0 is "socioeconomic background" x_1 is "result of the marshmallow test"
  - mortehu 8y ago
    The question isn't whether you can produce absurd example models where "What [vanderZwan says] would only be true if character traits and socioeconomic background were uncorrelated", it's whether it holds in general.