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Apple is trying to get more revenue from services, etc. That can’t continue growing selling more iPhones, at least beyond single digit growth. As much as I li

Apple is trying to get more revenue from services, etc. That can’t continue growing selling more iPhones, at least beyond single digit growth. As much as I like getting a new iPhone every year, I think most of the world isn’t nearly as excited. That’s going to hurt revenues, and the stock at some point.

simonh 8y ago
The distinct ASP bump since the launch of the X says the new shiny is still selling to the punters just fine. Maybe total sales are flattening off, but there's no sign yet that Apple are having trouble generating interest in premium hardware. That day may come too, but it's been predicted as a near certainty any year now for almost a decade. Those betting against Apple staying on top of their various markets have not fared well over the last 20 years.
- zitterbewegung 8y ago
  Yea the new shiny is still selling but I think apple acknowledges that new shiny phones sales will start to resemble the PC market they disrupted . And Apple doesn’t want to be in that position and is actively trying to disrupt the Smartphone (Apple Watch, AirPods and the HomePod ). Since Apple is a second mover I’m probably going to guess we are going to get a stand-alone mixed reality device soon. Also AirPods will get smarter and Apple watches will connect to more things .
djajshgsjja 8y ago
If you compare Apple’s PE ratio to the S&P 500 and tech companies in particular, you’ll find that the market is already expecting relatively low growth.
- fauigerzigerk 8y ago
  And it has been expecting that for a long time. 5 years ago Apple's PE was below 12. Since then the stock price has tripled. Now their PE is 18, so the market is expecting Apple to grow a lot faster in the next 5 years than it did in the last 5 years. https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/pe_ratio https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/pe_ratio We'll see if the market gets it right this time or at least not as horribly wrong as in the past.
  - djajshgsjja 8y ago
    The PE ratio of the entire stock market has increased by a lot during that period: http://www.multpl.com/table http://www.multpl.com/table You could say that everyone has higher growth expectations, or perhaps capital is just cheaper?
    - fauigerzigerk 8y ago
      Capital has not become cheaper. On the contrary, interest rates are on the way up. But I don't think it's growth expectations that are driving stock prices either. It feels more like investors shudder at the thought of owning any of the alternatives to US blue chips.

simonh 8y ago

The distinct ASP bump since the launch of the X says the new shiny is still selling to the punters just fine. Maybe total sales are flattening off, but there's no sign yet that Apple are having trouble generating interest in premium hardware. That day may come too, but it's been predicted as a near certainty any year now for almost a decade. Those betting against Apple staying on top of their various markets have not fared well over the last 20 years.

zitterbewegung 8y ago
Yea the new shiny is still selling but I think apple acknowledges that new shiny phones sales will start to resemble the PC market they disrupted . And Apple doesn’t want to be in that position and is actively trying to disrupt the Smartphone (Apple Watch, AirPods and the HomePod ). Since Apple is a second mover I’m probably going to guess we are going to get a stand-alone mixed reality device soon. Also AirPods will get smarter and Apple watches will connect to more things .

djajshgsjja 8y ago

If you compare Apple’s PE ratio to the S&P 500 and tech companies in particular, you’ll find that the market is already expecting relatively low growth.

fauigerzigerk 8y ago
And it has been expecting that for a long time. 5 years ago Apple's PE was below 12. Since then the stock price has tripled. Now their PE is 18, so the market is expecting Apple to grow a lot faster in the next 5 years than it did in the last 5 years. https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/pe_ratio https://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/pe_ratio We'll see if the market gets it right this time or at least not as horribly wrong as in the past.
- djajshgsjja 8y ago
  The PE ratio of the entire stock market has increased by a lot during that period: http://www.multpl.com/table http://www.multpl.com/table You could say that everyone has higher growth expectations, or perhaps capital is just cheaper?
  - fauigerzigerk 8y ago
    Capital has not become cheaper. On the contrary, interest rates are on the way up. But I don't think it's growth expectations that are driving stock prices either. It feels more like investors shudder at the thought of owning any of the alternatives to US blue chips.