Let's say half of them ever actually make an effort to develop apps (100,000). This could possibly be wildly optimistic. I bet only 10% of them will ever actua

Let's say half of them ever actually make an effort to develop apps (100,000). This could possibly be wildly optimistic. I bet only 10% of them will ever actually ship anything (10,000). Of these, probably 90% will suck (1,000). It still seems like enough to have quite a few really awesome applications that cater to enough lifestyle/professional niches (photography, GTD, CRM, ...) to create a little bonzai-tree software ecosystem, one that Apple has by the balls at all times.