3 ms·
"...someone bleeding from all orifices will get to an ER much faster in the US. Some transmissions from the index case would certainly be possible, although eve
by Fomite 8y ago
"...someone bleeding from all orifices will get to an ER much faster in the US. Some transmissions from the index case would certainly be possible, although even standard hospital practice goes a long way towards inhibiting it."
We now know this is not the default presentation of Ebola. In most patients, it's a serious febrile disease, not "Leaking blood from everywhere". The diagnostic process is much harder than you're giving credit for.
"I doubt a diagnosis would take more than a day, especially if the patient recently traveled or the hospital is near a major hub. Medical professionals are as obsessed with such diseases as we are."
The number of times travel histories are skipped or missed is staggering.
That being said, I worked in a group that was modeling both Ebola in West Africa and Ebola in the U.S., and the conclusion, even with some pretty serious scenarios, was that Ebola in U.S. would be pretty swiftly contained.
- maxerickson 8y agoI'm under the impression that the relatively successful containment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (compared to the West African outbreak) is an illustration of the impact a prepared, functional public health system has on Ebola. Nigeria too. I wouldn't be stunned by a delay in response due to "it can't happen here" chauvinism, but once enough people were taking it seriously I would expect the US public health system to be up to the challenge. Hopefully there would be little or no delay in treating it seriously, I'm just pointing to that as a likely contributor to the size of a potential outbreak.
- Fomite 8y agoIndeed. It's important to note that the DRC has an order of magnitude more doctors per capita than Liberia does. The border between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone is pretty much disease containment hard mode.