I did similar calculations but using a different methodology. Cheapest ZipCar is $8/hr and has the same cost structure (i.e. ZipCar also pays for car, insuranc

I did similar calculations but using a different methodology. Cheapest ZipCar is $8/hr and has the same cost structure (i.e. ZipCar also pays for car, insurance, gas, maintenance etc.). So let's generously assume it's $10/hr. That's 3x cheaper than taxi or Uber so they instantly kill taxi/Uber where they operate. Assuming an average in-city trip of 15 minutes, that's comparable to $2.5 ticket for a bus in SF. Obviously, an autonomous car can take up to 4 passengers, so if you agree to share, the price can be 2-3x cheaper. That kills buses where they operate. And long term (5-10 years out) when they operate at scale, they should be cheaper than ZipCar (say $5-$6 per hr). Why? Because their cars will have higher utilization. Because they'll all be electric and electricity is 3x cheaper per mile than gas even if you buy for utilities (as opposed to building your own solar farm nearby to supply most of the electricity) Because insurance cost will be dramatically lower (near zero). Because they'll buy them in millions so cost savings due to manufacturing scale. Because they'll be constantly re-designing cars to make them cheaper to make and more reliable as opposed to trying to guess what color or form factor will be popular tomorrow with humans or making high-performance version.