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I've been pondering the economics of this and wondering what they will end up charging. Assumptions: * $100k / car * 250k miles / car before replacement (

I've been pondering the economics of this and wondering what they will end up charging. Assumptions: * $100k / car * 250k miles / car before replacement (I'm assuming these aren't fleet vehicles which could go for longer) * $3 / gallon for gas * 30mpg * 10k car / year of opex * 250k miles / car / year Per mile costs are: * $0.10 for gas * $0.40 for capex * $0.04 for opex For a total of about $0.54 / mile. The biggest win is likely getting vehicles that are fleet capable to reduce the overall cost / mile, followed by switching to the all electric vehicles like the i-Pace.

ghaff 8y ago
You basically just derived the IRS deduction rate for personal vehicles used for business. While not a perfect proxy for costs (which is a complicated question), it's a reasonable back-of-the-envelope estimate for operating a vehicle--including depreciation--without a driver.
- maherbeg 8y ago
  Heh yeah. I assume that the cost structure will be something like $0.70 / mile for single person rides, and then dramatically dropping it for carpooled rides. If the cost structure is accurate, then this could really take a way the need for a second car for most people, and maybe even a primary car for folks that are ok with renting for their occasional weekend jaunt. If they can get significantly higher mileage out of each car and/or reduce the cost of LIDAR too, then that will make a large improvement in profitability / car.
  - ghaff 8y ago
    I'm fairly skeptical about how soon door-to-door autonomy arrives but figuring out the cost basis seems fairly straightforward. You also have to account that there will be some deadheading to get to you, to the next fare, and to park/get cleaned/fueled. I suspect Uber/Lyft/Zipcar/etc.have already significantly cut into the second car in a lot of greater urban area households--or will when the next refresh cycle comes around. Anything that further reduces on-demand costs just increases the effect. (Though it's probably worth at least noting that current rideshare (where available) pricing is <= 2-3x base operational costs. That's not nothing obviously but it's not a difference between a luxury and too cheap to meter.)
kjksf 8y ago
I did similar calculations but using a different methodology. Cheapest ZipCar is $8/hr and has the same cost structure (i.e. ZipCar also pays for car, insurance, gas, maintenance etc.). So let's generously assume it's $10/hr. That's 3x cheaper than taxi or Uber so they instantly kill taxi/Uber where they operate. Assuming an average in-city trip of 15 minutes, that's comparable to $2.5 ticket for a bus in SF. Obviously, an autonomous car can take up to 4 passengers, so if you agree to share, the price can be 2-3x cheaper. That kills buses where they operate. And long term (5-10 years out) when they operate at scale, they should be cheaper than ZipCar (say $5-$6 per hr). Why? Because their cars will have higher utilization. Because they'll all be electric and electricity is 3x cheaper per mile than gas even if you buy for utilities (as opposed to building your own solar farm nearby to supply most of the electricity) Because insurance cost will be dramatically lower (near zero). Because they'll buy them in millions so cost savings due to manufacturing scale. Because they'll be constantly re-designing cars to make them cheaper to make and more reliable as opposed to trying to guess what color or form factor will be popular tomorrow with humans or making high-performance version.

ghaff 8y ago

You basically just derived the IRS deduction rate for personal vehicles used for business. While not a perfect proxy for costs (which is a complicated question), it's a reasonable back-of-the-envelope estimate for operating a vehicle--including depreciation--without a driver.

maherbeg 8y ago
Heh yeah. I assume that the cost structure will be something like $0.70 / mile for single person rides, and then dramatically dropping it for carpooled rides. If the cost structure is accurate, then this could really take a way the need for a second car for most people, and maybe even a primary car for folks that are ok with renting for their occasional weekend jaunt. If they can get significantly higher mileage out of each car and/or reduce the cost of LIDAR too, then that will make a large improvement in profitability / car.
- ghaff 8y ago
  I'm fairly skeptical about how soon door-to-door autonomy arrives but figuring out the cost basis seems fairly straightforward. You also have to account that there will be some deadheading to get to you, to the next fare, and to park/get cleaned/fueled. I suspect Uber/Lyft/Zipcar/etc.have already significantly cut into the second car in a lot of greater urban area households--or will when the next refresh cycle comes around. Anything that further reduces on-demand costs just increases the effect. (Though it's probably worth at least noting that current rideshare (where available) pricing is <= 2-3x base operational costs. That's not nothing obviously but it's not a difference between a luxury and too cheap to meter.)

kjksf 8y ago

I did similar calculations but using a different methodology. Cheapest ZipCar is $8/hr and has the same cost structure (i.e. ZipCar also pays for car, insurance, gas, maintenance etc.). So let's generously assume it's $10/hr. That's 3x cheaper than taxi or Uber so they instantly kill taxi/Uber where they operate. Assuming an average in-city trip of 15 minutes, that's comparable to $2.5 ticket for a bus in SF. Obviously, an autonomous car can take up to 4 passengers, so if you agree to share, the price can be 2-3x cheaper. That kills buses where they operate. And long term (5-10 years out) when they operate at scale, they should be cheaper than ZipCar (say $5-$6 per hr). Why? Because their cars will have higher utilization. Because they'll all be electric and electricity is 3x cheaper per mile than gas even if you buy for utilities (as opposed to building your own solar farm nearby to supply most of the electricity) Because insurance cost will be dramatically lower (near zero). Because they'll buy them in millions so cost savings due to manufacturing scale. Because they'll be constantly re-designing cars to make them cheaper to make and more reliable as opposed to trying to guess what color or form factor will be popular tomorrow with humans or making high-performance version.