The Center for Existential Risk does solid work on this. https://www.cser.ac.uk/ https://www.cser.ac.uk/ For estimating the likelihood of AGI, you can start wi

The Center for Existential Risk does solid work on this. https://www.cser.ac.uk/ https://www.cser.ac.uk/ For estimating the likelihood of AGI, you can start with estimates from people in the field. Some say 0%, others say 80% chance in 50 years. Any way averaging of these produces a risk high enough to justify serious funding into safety research.