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The most important evidence for imminent commercialization is Waymo's recent order for 62,000 minivans. If we're assuming a conservative $100k a pop once they'r

The most important evidence for imminent commercialization is Waymo's recent order for 62,000 minivans. If we're assuming a conservative $100k a pop once they're loaded up with all the technology required, that's a $6B investment in depreciating assets. They wouldn't do that unless they were extremely confident that the technology is ready, and given their safety record, I'm inclined to believe them. The frequently-repeated caveats certainly apply -- they'll only be operating in limited geographies with ideal weather; there will probably be roads, conditions and maneuvers that are restricted. But having actual autonomous vehicles on the road performing commercially useful tasks is by far most important step. The rest will come incrementally. Exciting times.

MarkMc 8y ago
I agree with you about it being exciting, but Waymo haven't actually ordered the minivans - the press release says up to 62,000 minivans, so the actual size of the order is not clear. https://venturebeat.com/2018/05/31/waymo-orders-62000-fiat-chrysler-minivans-for-its-upcoming-autonomous-taxi-service/ https://venturebeat.com/2018/05/31/waymo-orders-62000-fiat-c...
- bm1362 8y ago
  These deals are often structured with outs and progressive volume so you’re probably correct. Realistically they probably ordered 500 minivans with a deal to get more based on some targets.
  - mdorazio 8y ago
    You're spot-on here. The 62k number is almost certainly the negotiated volume pricing amount they negotiated as a maximum under the current contract to get favorable pricing. I would be highly surprised if the actual order volumes are more than a few hundred at a time for the next couple years.
ams6110 8y ago
Or they just want you (and more importantly their potential fleet/commercial customers) to think this. Whether they are ready or not, that kind of announcement further marginalizes the credibility of competing efforts. It could also be interpreted as a move to counter the growing public perception that self-driving cars are "not ready."
- pavs 8y ago
  No matter how much money Alphabet has lying around, 6B is a ridiculous amount of money to spend on credibility. They are confident in their product and confident in return of their investment. Tesla is doing a great job at screwing up public perception on self-driving cars, when it itself is not a self-driving car (it's a glorified driver assist).
Fricken 8y ago
60k FCAs plus 20k Jaguars x 50 trips per day (Waymo's estimate) = 4 million trips a day. While there are all sorts of funky technological and regulatory factors to consider, unimpaired this is enough to displace the entire rideshare/taxi industry across the southwestern United States.

MarkMc 8y ago

I agree with you about it being exciting, but Waymo haven't actually ordered the minivans - the press release says up to 62,000 minivans, so the actual size of the order is not clear. https://venturebeat.com/2018/05/31/waymo-orders-62000-fiat-chrysler-minivans-for-its-upcoming-autonomous-taxi-service/ https://venturebeat.com/2018/05/31/waymo-orders-62000-fiat-c...

bm1362 8y ago
These deals are often structured with outs and progressive volume so you’re probably correct. Realistically they probably ordered 500 minivans with a deal to get more based on some targets.
- mdorazio 8y ago
  You're spot-on here. The 62k number is almost certainly the negotiated volume pricing amount they negotiated as a maximum under the current contract to get favorable pricing. I would be highly surprised if the actual order volumes are more than a few hundred at a time for the next couple years.

ams6110 8y ago

Or they just want you (and more importantly their potential fleet/commercial customers) to think this. Whether they are ready or not, that kind of announcement further marginalizes the credibility of competing efforts. It could also be interpreted as a move to counter the growing public perception that self-driving cars are "not ready."

pavs 8y ago
No matter how much money Alphabet has lying around, 6B is a ridiculous amount of money to spend on credibility. They are confident in their product and confident in return of their investment. Tesla is doing a great job at screwing up public perception on self-driving cars, when it itself is not a self-driving car (it's a glorified driver assist).

Fricken 8y ago

60k FCAs plus 20k Jaguars x 50 trips per day (Waymo's estimate) = 4 million trips a day. While there are all sorts of funky technological and regulatory factors to consider, unimpaired this is enough to displace the entire rideshare/taxi industry across the southwestern United States.