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Meh. Whatever your opinions on P = NP, the efficient markets hypothesis is unfalsifiable. You can only falsify a joint hypothesis of efficiency plus some model
by soVeryTired 8y ago
Meh. Whatever your opinions on P = NP, the efficient markets hypothesis is unfalsifiable. You can only falsify a joint hypothesis of efficiency plus some model of information flow into a market.
- jonathanstrange 8y agoWait a minute, if the paper correctly links a theoretical definition of efficiency to the complexity class and indeed shows that markets can be efficient only iff. P=NP, then any future proof that P!=NP falsifies the thesis that markets are efficient. And most experts agree that if we ever get a proof, then it will be a proof of NP!=P. Knuth is a notable exception, although he has to my knowledge never really vigorously advocated P=NP but merely suggested the possibility that P=NP and that the algorithms to transform NP problems into P problems could be very, very complex but still in P. Seems unlikely, though.
- argv_empty 8y agoThe paper doesn't even manage to prove that finding a significantly profitable technical strategy is in NP.