The market cannot be efficient because a large portion of public information is not true. Even if all the information was true, there is still the problem that

The market cannot be efficient because a large portion of public information is not true. Even if all the information was true, there is still the problem that humans have very poor reasoning abilities combined with herd mentality which almost always overrides the reasoning part. To predict the market, you don't need to understand the market, you need to understand people's distorted view of the market.