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I’m sorry but I disagree. Driverless cars are a pipe dream at this point. A lot of people are going to die and legislation will catch up eventually. The tech is

by wil421 8y ago

I’m sorry but I disagree. Driverless cars are a pipe dream at this point. A lot of people are going to die and legislation will catch up eventually. The tech isn’t even standardized with everyone taking different approaches. The article about TI millimeter wave radar that’s was on the front page shed some light. I’m sure this won’t be popular on HN. The Uber crash gave some insight on the real state of things. Tesla is in full PR mode even getting banned from the recent crash’s investigation.

floathub 8y ago
I could not agree more. Softbank and the investment community may just be in greater fool mode. Or, to be more generous, perhaps they are taking a long term approach. But anything close to Level 4/5 is a _long_ way away, as even senior technical folks have been admitting recently.
- Fricken 8y ago
  Waymo is already doing level 4. Check it out, a Waymo van was on Jimmy Kimmel the other day: https://youtu.be/c6twRCBtd-g https://youtu.be/c6twRCBtd-g
  - soVeryTired 8y ago
    Lex Friedman's team at MIT seem to think that fully autonomous driving is a long way off: there are just too many edge cases to deal with. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.06976 https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.06976 From the abstract: "Until these problems are solved, human beings will remain an integral part of the driving task, monitoring the AI system as it performs anywhere from just over 0% to just under 100% of the driving". Now there's room to be optimistic or pessimistic about how much an AI can help, but the academic consensus is that level five will need many more research breakthroughs. There are some good video lectures that give an overview of the field (but not that much depth) here: https://selfdrivingcars.mit.edu/ https://selfdrivingcars.mit.edu/
    - kazinator 8y ago
      > human beings will remain an integral part of the driving task And not just any humans, for that matter: humans over a certain age who are trained and licensed. A seven-year-old human is smarter than any AI and has better knowledge about the world, yet we don't let them drive.
    - Fricken 8y ago
      Lex Fridman's team has drawn their highly disingenuous conclusions based on studies of automated (not autonomous) systems from Volvo, Tesla and Range Rover. They didn't study a single product from a company working on an actual autonomous driving system, and of course they can't because those products are all currently in development and not available to study.
      - soVeryTired 8y ago
        It's fair to criticize a study but when you start calling an academic researcher 'highly disingenuous', you just sound like you have a horse in the race. Did you found an autonomous driving company or something?
- mentat 8y ago
  Level 4 cars have been driving around Mountain View for years. It's funny that the response is either disbelief or goal post moving.
  - Judgmentality 8y ago
    The cars that have been driving around Mountain View have been level 3, since there was still a driver. Waymo does have level 4 cars in Phoenix right now, which is incredibly impressive. Whether or not they are capable of fully driverless functionality in Mountain View right now is unknown, but I sincerely doubt it given it's their hometown and if they could they would. Waymo is clearly the leader and making great strides, but they're not there yet. By the end of this year when they officially launch to the public in Phoenix we'll have a much better idea of how far along they really are.
    - mentat 8y ago
      There are two kinds of cars, the "golf cart" class ones that are level 4 and the SUV ones that are level 3. Both have been active around Mountain View for years (though the level 3 ones longer).
      - Judgmentality 8y ago
        What makes you think the "golf carts" are level 4? Level 4 implies you don't need a driver, but I don't believe they were ever tested without drivers on public roads.
        mentat 8y ago
        https://twitter.com/mattmcfarland/status/620571336214056960 https://twitter.com/mattmcfarland/status/620571336214056960 and related coverage at the time was where I came to believe these were level 4. It's fairly hard to get a specific timeline of this though. Edit: also articles like this: https://www.mercurynews.com/2015/11/13/driverless-google-car-finds-itself-in-worlds-most-viral-traffic-stop/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2015/11/13/driverless-google-car... I think it's not considered "level 4" because of specific state exemption and the speed limit.
LeonM 8y ago
> A lot of people are going to die A lot of people already die everyday in car accidents. The only difference will be that we have no one we can blame if the vehicle in question does not have a driver.
- wil421 8y ago
  I do not need an algorithm or even to think when I’m in a dangerous situation. My mind will react and I will assess the situation afterwards. Millions of years of experience has trained life. I can see the same traits in my dogs.
  - dantheman 8y ago
    And that's how people die. Like slamming the brakes when on ice and losing all traction. Yeah, it's like dogs digging on paved roads -- your millions of years of experience don't apply to when the technology changes.
    - wil421 8y ago
      Or they die because Uber’s algorithm notices a bike 6 seconds before impact, unnoticed it, and finally doesn’t understand what it is.
      - ImSkeptical 8y ago
        I hope Uber is not the leader in driverless cars. I believe accidents and fatalities per vehicle mile traveled are the most relevant statistics. If driverless cars can outperform humans on those metrics then they will be a great boon even if they roll over the odd cyclist or get in weird crashes.
      - mentat 8y ago
        They had automatic braking turned off on purpose. Blame the humans.
  - icelancer 8y ago
maxerickson 8y ago
Why would you want the tech to be standardized? There should be some sensible kind of road test, but it'd be a terrible outcome for regulators to specify exactly how the technology should work for a given model year.
criticali 8y ago
i am in the industry and it absolutely is still a pipe dream. 20+ years away, easily.
Fricken 8y ago
Waymo just announced it's ordering 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica minivans for use as robotaxis. Do you still think it's just a pipe dream? https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/31/17412908/waymo-chrysler-pacifica-minvan-self-driving-fleet https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/31/17412908/waymo-chrysler-p...
- alexland 8y ago
  IIRC the robotaxi service will only be offered in Arizona for the time being, which is basically the easiest place to perform at level 4. This might be a good start, but don't be fooled into thinking the improvements required to bring level 4 into markets with reasonable amounts of rain and snow are linear; if the rest of the self driving car industry is any indication, we're nearing a plateau.

by wil421 8y ago

floathub 8y ago

I could not agree more. Softbank and the investment community may just be in greater fool mode. Or, to be more generous, perhaps they are taking a long term approach. But anything close to Level 4/5 is a _long_ way away, as even senior technical folks have been admitting recently.

Fricken 8y ago
Waymo is already doing level 4. Check it out, a Waymo van was on Jimmy Kimmel the other day: https://youtu.be/c6twRCBtd-g https://youtu.be/c6twRCBtd-g
- soVeryTired 8y ago
  Lex Friedman's team at MIT seem to think that fully autonomous driving is a long way off: there are just too many edge cases to deal with. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.06976 https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.06976 From the abstract: "Until these problems are solved, human beings will remain an integral part of the driving task, monitoring the AI system as it performs anywhere from just over 0% to just under 100% of the driving". Now there's room to be optimistic or pessimistic about how much an AI can help, but the academic consensus is that level five will need many more research breakthroughs. There are some good video lectures that give an overview of the field (but not that much depth) here: https://selfdrivingcars.mit.edu/ https://selfdrivingcars.mit.edu/
  - kazinator 8y ago
    > human beings will remain an integral part of the driving task And not just any humans, for that matter: humans over a certain age who are trained and licensed. A seven-year-old human is smarter than any AI and has better knowledge about the world, yet we don't let them drive.
  - Fricken 8y ago
    Lex Fridman's team has drawn their highly disingenuous conclusions based on studies of automated (not autonomous) systems from Volvo, Tesla and Range Rover. They didn't study a single product from a company working on an actual autonomous driving system, and of course they can't because those products are all currently in development and not available to study.
    - soVeryTired 8y ago
      It's fair to criticize a study but when you start calling an academic researcher 'highly disingenuous', you just sound like you have a horse in the race. Did you found an autonomous driving company or something?
mentat 8y ago
Level 4 cars have been driving around Mountain View for years. It's funny that the response is either disbelief or goal post moving.
- Judgmentality 8y ago
  The cars that have been driving around Mountain View have been level 3, since there was still a driver. Waymo does have level 4 cars in Phoenix right now, which is incredibly impressive. Whether or not they are capable of fully driverless functionality in Mountain View right now is unknown, but I sincerely doubt it given it's their hometown and if they could they would. Waymo is clearly the leader and making great strides, but they're not there yet. By the end of this year when they officially launch to the public in Phoenix we'll have a much better idea of how far along they really are.
  - mentat 8y ago
    There are two kinds of cars, the "golf cart" class ones that are level 4 and the SUV ones that are level 3. Both have been active around Mountain View for years (though the level 3 ones longer).
    - Judgmentality 8y ago
      What makes you think the "golf carts" are level 4? Level 4 implies you don't need a driver, but I don't believe they were ever tested without drivers on public roads.
      - mentat 8y ago
        https://twitter.com/mattmcfarland/status/620571336214056960 https://twitter.com/mattmcfarland/status/620571336214056960 and related coverage at the time was where I came to believe these were level 4. It's fairly hard to get a specific timeline of this though. Edit: also articles like this: https://www.mercurynews.com/2015/11/13/driverless-google-car-finds-itself-in-worlds-most-viral-traffic-stop/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2015/11/13/driverless-google-car... I think it's not considered "level 4" because of specific state exemption and the speed limit.

LeonM 8y ago

> A lot of people are going to die A lot of people already die everyday in car accidents. The only difference will be that we have no one we can blame if the vehicle in question does not have a driver.

wil421 8y ago
I do not need an algorithm or even to think when I’m in a dangerous situation. My mind will react and I will assess the situation afterwards. Millions of years of experience has trained life. I can see the same traits in my dogs.
- dantheman 8y ago
  And that's how people die. Like slamming the brakes when on ice and losing all traction. Yeah, it's like dogs digging on paved roads -- your millions of years of experience don't apply to when the technology changes.
  - wil421 8y ago
    Or they die because Uber’s algorithm notices a bike 6 seconds before impact, unnoticed it, and finally doesn’t understand what it is.
    - ImSkeptical 8y ago
      I hope Uber is not the leader in driverless cars. I believe accidents and fatalities per vehicle mile traveled are the most relevant statistics. If driverless cars can outperform humans on those metrics then they will be a great boon even if they roll over the odd cyclist or get in weird crashes.
    - mentat 8y ago
      They had automatic braking turned off on purpose. Blame the humans.
- icelancer 8y ago

maxerickson 8y ago

Why would you want the tech to be standardized? There should be some sensible kind of road test, but it'd be a terrible outcome for regulators to specify exactly how the technology should work for a given model year.

criticali 8y ago

i am in the industry and it absolutely is still a pipe dream. 20+ years away, easily.

Fricken 8y ago

Waymo just announced it's ordering 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica minivans for use as robotaxis. Do you still think it's just a pipe dream? https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/31/17412908/waymo-chrysler-pacifica-minvan-self-driving-fleet https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/31/17412908/waymo-chrysler-p...

alexland 8y ago
IIRC the robotaxi service will only be offered in Arizona for the time being, which is basically the easiest place to perform at level 4. This might be a good start, but don't be fooled into thinking the improvements required to bring level 4 into markets with reasonable amounts of rain and snow are linear; if the rest of the self driving car industry is any indication, we're nearing a plateau.