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The sense check here is "If I had a large team of people reading 10-k reports, could I profit from the analysis?". Well, it turns out this is exactly what many
by soVeryTired 8y ago
The sense check here is "If I had a large team of people reading 10-k reports, could I profit from the analysis?". Well, it turns out this is exactly what many asset managers do. If it was easy to profit from this sort of information, we'd be awash with asset managers beating the market. We aren't.
There are two mutually exclusive conclusions that you could draw from this: one, the informational advantage you get from reading company reports is small, and TFA is overstating their case. Two, convnets have discovered a way of reading reports that conveys a big advantage, and further, human readers can't replicate the process.
My money is on the first hypothesis. The second is an enormous claim, and so demands an enormous amount of evidence.
- paulddraper 8y ago> If it was easy to profit from this sort of information, we'd be awash with asset managers beating the market. Unless it's a Moneyball-like situation, where managers theoretically have access to all the same metrics, but actually use inferior squishy human judgement instead of hard data. Due to the amount of data across the entire industry, it's totally conceivable that "human readers can't replicate the process". That said, I'm a bit of a pessimist, and concur with your suspicion.