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> How is it backward looking? I don't have an opinion about China, but just in general, I'm sure they don't have data from the future :-) I would say it is oka
by ItsMe000001 8y ago
> How is it backward looking?
I don't have an opinion about China, but just in general, I'm sure they don't have data from the future :-) I would say it is okay to say that about such predictions. There are others that don't rely as much on past data, but especially this kind of prediction surely is entirely based on numbers from the past, or do we have a model that reliably predicts those outcomes from at least present data (i.e. less data from people, but that it uses data about the circumstances, like amount & quality of sanitation and food)? If the model is purely based on human population statistics it's 100% past.
- chrisseaton 8y ago> I don't have an opinion about China, but just in general, I'm sure they don't have data from the future :-) Well then all studies are ‘backward looking’ then and it’s a stupid criticism, and why mention it since it’s obvious and there’s no other way they could have done it.
- ItsMe000001 8y agoI think what you just wrote falls back on you. The parent just mentioned it, nothing special, AND it made sense as part of his argument. It was you who made a big deal of it. You wrote > How is it backward looking? Which is clearly wrong! You even just admitted it. Please don't try to make it look like it's the parent commenters fault now.