4 ms·
> CONSIDER INVESTING IN RESPONSIVE COMPANIES No. As he notes, the sample size is ridiculously small. It's simply too likely that he got lucky with 1 or 2 comp
by obblekk 8y ago
> CONSIDER INVESTING IN RESPONSIVE COMPANIES
No.
As he notes, the sample size is ridiculously small. It's simply too likely that he got lucky with 1 or 2 companies in his "respond" group.
e.g., if he wrote these letters in the the early 90s and Buffet responded, he's immediately skewed his returns up because Buffet outperformed the market SO much in the 90s. That's likely luck, not replicable skill.
Otherwise, interesting article and the 1/3 response rate is surprisingly high.
- make3 8y agomaybe CEOs that are less negatively stressed by current affairs feel more free to answer him.. obviously this doesn't scale though
- xapata 8y agoYou can easily do a statistical signicance test to estimate if the effect is non-zero.
- asdsa5325 8y agoWhich will still mean almost nothing, since past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
- shanghaiaway 8y agoYou basically just claimed that data analysis as a whole is invalid.
- skolsuper 8y agoIt's a valid point, this is post-hoc data analysis so you need to be careful of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy