3 ms·

I’ve always been very skeptical at this report. I’m not exactly sure why, but I think because a) it is mainly a collection of a lots of data and b) it is extrem

by baxtr 8y ago

I’ve always been very skeptical at this report. I’m not exactly sure why, but I think because a) it is mainly a collection of a lots of data and b) it is extremely popular with many business people who often have little knowledge on the subject

patkai 8y ago
I'm also skeptical of reports where one seems to need 294 slides to identify a trend. But drowning viewers in data and having no conclusions at the end is all the data I need.
- baxtr 8y ago
  True. What I don’t get though: Why is it sooo popular then?
  - jasode 8y ago
    It's popular because it's a convenient compendium of a bunch of charts. Let's say I'm wondering about "number of smartphone users growth". A google search might pull one chart for that.[1] What Mary Meeker does is ask 200 of those types of questions, gathers all the data to make the charts, and puts them together in one deck. That's more convenient than conducting 200 searches on the Statista website. I think the disconnect and dissatisfaction happens because they expect Mary Meeker's slides to provide some mind-blowing insight. I think it's more realistic just to accept it as a nice data dump of some of the latest trends. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartph...
    - baxtr 8y ago
      Thank you for this explanation. Makes completely sense
    - patkai 8y ago
      Not expecting mind blowing insight, just insight. Data turned into knowledge and models, showing relationships and significance. Gathering data is an intermediate step in this process. But true, it is a nice dump of data!
  - orand 8y ago
    It helps to have an alliterative name. ;-) Only half joking. The executive types who like this kind of thing also have a tendency to think alliteration makes them sound smarter.
  - dfabulich 8y ago
    Mary Meeker became popular about seven or eight years ago, and at the time, there was an executive summary: "mobile is much, much bigger than you realize." At the time, many people didn't realize that Android + iOS shipments had dwarfed Wintel shipments until they saw this dramatic image in her 2012 slide deck. https://image.slidesharecdn.com/internettrendsstanford120312final-121203181402-phpapp01/95/2012-kpcb-internet-trends-yearend-update-24-638.jpg https://image.slidesharecdn.com/internettrendsstanford120312... Since then, IMO, people keep showing up because they're looking for another major shock. But there hasn't been a major shock like the rise of mobile since then. Mobile is still big. China is still big. etc. Now her presentations convey a feeling of comfort. "I believed all of this already, because I am a smart, well-informed person, and here's the data to prove it."
    - matco11 8y ago
      Mary Meeker became popular in 1995. She was the lead internet equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley and covered the IPO of Netscape. She was one of the top equity research analysts in 1998-2000 covering EBay, Amazon, Drugstore.com amongst others
    - prawn 8y ago
      I think the alliteration in her name and the fact that it's an annual report ("Oh yeah, I read this last year") contribute too.
  - groby_b 8y ago
    Speaking for myself: Because it's a collection of lots or relevant data in one place. You get to pop up your head and look at the world at large. How is the industry as a whole progressing, what particular areas are "hot" in terms of attention. It's well researched, it's sourced, it's free - quite likely the only compendium of that size that meets those criteria.
- jasode 8y ago
  >need 294 slides to identify a trend. Her report isn't trying to identify "a trend" (singular). They are slides for multiple trends (plural). Notice that "trends" is the actual title of the report. There isn't meant to be only one single narrative for all the slides. (Well, the "internet" is a common denominator but "internet" is obviously already in the title.) E.g. the slides for voice assistants trends (Amazon echo) are separate from housing space utilization trends (AirBnb). Multiple trends for different technologies, different business sectors, different geographies, etc.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- j45 8y ago
  The report has value to find trends or insights that may apply to a particular world, specifically when trying to get a sense of disruption.
mcknz 8y ago
Also the y-axis on a lot of the charts seem arbitrary -- designed to show spikes to underscore assumptions.
danso 8y ago
That, and the fact that it comes in the form of a slidedeck makes it hard to do itemized critiques. I guess it wouldn't be hard, if someone cared enough, to manually go through the slides each year and note them in a spreadsheet. But the other problem with slides is that it is very cumbersome to find the source data used for the charts. Hell, it's hard to even read the footnotes for these charts, even for this relatively simple one: https://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-report-2018-99574140 https://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-re... edit: Slide 8, "Internet Penetration" As an example of why the insights seem kind of bland to me, here's where she has a pie chart about "Where Do You Begin Your Product Search?", with Amazon at 49% vs 36% for "Search Engine": https://youtu.be/HdjcdZqODoE?t=8m22s https://youtu.be/HdjcdZqODoE?t=8m22s However, looking up the source for that data, and it seems like the more interesting insight is that Amazon's lead shrunk from 55% to 49%: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/google-narrows-search-gap-with-amazon-retailers-left-in-dust https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/google-na... But I guess for most people, it's insightful enough to know that Amazon has such a lead in the first place? I'll admit I didn't know that without seeing her slide.
- Alex3917 8y ago
  > the fact that it comes in the form of a slidedeck makes it hard to do itemized critiques The slides usually cite sources, so it's pretty easy to tell if the underlying methodology is weak. (And often it is.) I usually enjoy reading the annual reports, my biggest criticism is just that it focuses on completely different trends each year. It will go from social to AI to messaging to privacy, etc. If something is only relevant and worth talking about for one year, then pretty much by definition it isn't a trend.
  - majormajor 8y ago
    Heh. Trend is a fun word since it both means "a continuing movement" and also "a fad." "That's a meaningful trend in the data" vs "it's just a trend."
  - hoi 8y ago
    My criticism is that its usually US -centric, sure there is more about China every year, but the healthcare section is all US, lots of media usage habits which are all US, economics, GDP all US. For example, I've not learned much at all from that deck about whats happening in Africa or India.
AznHisoka 8y ago
Normally I would be, but it seems they have access to special data b/c they fund companies like Coinbase and NextDoor.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
allenleein 8y ago
The report from past five years: Most successful predictions obvious (mobile, China). Lots of misses (AI, cloud computing), and lots that’s wrong (everyone will be using wearables?).

by baxtr 8y ago

patkai 8y ago

I'm also skeptical of reports where one seems to need 294 slides to identify a trend. But drowning viewers in data and having no conclusions at the end is all the data I need.

baxtr 8y ago
True. What I don’t get though: Why is it sooo popular then?
- jasode 8y ago
  It's popular because it's a convenient compendium of a bunch of charts. Let's say I'm wondering about "number of smartphone users growth". A google search might pull one chart for that.[1] What Mary Meeker does is ask 200 of those types of questions, gathers all the data to make the charts, and puts them together in one deck. That's more convenient than conducting 200 searches on the Statista website. I think the disconnect and dissatisfaction happens because they expect Mary Meeker's slides to provide some mind-blowing insight. I think it's more realistic just to accept it as a nice data dump of some of the latest trends. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartph...
  - baxtr 8y ago
    Thank you for this explanation. Makes completely sense
  - patkai 8y ago
    Not expecting mind blowing insight, just insight. Data turned into knowledge and models, showing relationships and significance. Gathering data is an intermediate step in this process. But true, it is a nice dump of data!
- orand 8y ago
  It helps to have an alliterative name. ;-) Only half joking. The executive types who like this kind of thing also have a tendency to think alliteration makes them sound smarter.
- dfabulich 8y ago
  Mary Meeker became popular about seven or eight years ago, and at the time, there was an executive summary: "mobile is much, much bigger than you realize." At the time, many people didn't realize that Android + iOS shipments had dwarfed Wintel shipments until they saw this dramatic image in her 2012 slide deck. https://image.slidesharecdn.com/internettrendsstanford120312final-121203181402-phpapp01/95/2012-kpcb-internet-trends-yearend-update-24-638.jpg https://image.slidesharecdn.com/internettrendsstanford120312... Since then, IMO, people keep showing up because they're looking for another major shock. But there hasn't been a major shock like the rise of mobile since then. Mobile is still big. China is still big. etc. Now her presentations convey a feeling of comfort. "I believed all of this already, because I am a smart, well-informed person, and here's the data to prove it."
  - matco11 8y ago
    Mary Meeker became popular in 1995. She was the lead internet equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley and covered the IPO of Netscape. She was one of the top equity research analysts in 1998-2000 covering EBay, Amazon, Drugstore.com amongst others
  - prawn 8y ago
    I think the alliteration in her name and the fact that it's an annual report ("Oh yeah, I read this last year") contribute too.
- groby_b 8y ago
  Speaking for myself: Because it's a collection of lots or relevant data in one place. You get to pop up your head and look at the world at large. How is the industry as a whole progressing, what particular areas are "hot" in terms of attention. It's well researched, it's sourced, it's free - quite likely the only compendium of that size that meets those criteria.
jasode 8y ago
>need 294 slides to identify a trend. Her report isn't trying to identify "a trend" (singular). They are slides for multiple trends (plural). Notice that "trends" is the actual title of the report. There isn't meant to be only one single narrative for all the slides. (Well, the "internet" is a common denominator but "internet" is obviously already in the title.) E.g. the slides for voice assistants trends (Amazon echo) are separate from housing space utilization trends (AirBnb). Multiple trends for different technologies, different business sectors, different geographies, etc.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
j45 8y ago
The report has value to find trends or insights that may apply to a particular world, specifically when trying to get a sense of disruption.

mcknz 8y ago

Also the y-axis on a lot of the charts seem arbitrary -- designed to show spikes to underscore assumptions.

danso 8y ago

That, and the fact that it comes in the form of a slidedeck makes it hard to do itemized critiques. I guess it wouldn't be hard, if someone cared enough, to manually go through the slides each year and note them in a spreadsheet. But the other problem with slides is that it is very cumbersome to find the source data used for the charts. Hell, it's hard to even read the footnotes for these charts, even for this relatively simple one: https://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-report-2018-99574140 https://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-re... edit: Slide 8, "Internet Penetration" As an example of why the insights seem kind of bland to me, here's where she has a pie chart about "Where Do You Begin Your Product Search?", with Amazon at 49% vs 36% for "Search Engine": https://youtu.be/HdjcdZqODoE?t=8m22s https://youtu.be/HdjcdZqODoE?t=8m22s However, looking up the source for that data, and it seems like the more interesting insight is that Amazon's lead shrunk from 55% to 49%: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/google-narrows-search-gap-with-amazon-retailers-left-in-dust https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/google-na... But I guess for most people, it's insightful enough to know that Amazon has such a lead in the first place? I'll admit I didn't know that without seeing her slide.

Alex3917 8y ago
> the fact that it comes in the form of a slidedeck makes it hard to do itemized critiques The slides usually cite sources, so it's pretty easy to tell if the underlying methodology is weak. (And often it is.) I usually enjoy reading the annual reports, my biggest criticism is just that it focuses on completely different trends each year. It will go from social to AI to messaging to privacy, etc. If something is only relevant and worth talking about for one year, then pretty much by definition it isn't a trend.
- majormajor 8y ago
  Heh. Trend is a fun word since it both means "a continuing movement" and also "a fad." "That's a meaningful trend in the data" vs "it's just a trend."
- hoi 8y ago
  My criticism is that its usually US -centric, sure there is more about China every year, but the healthcare section is all US, lots of media usage habits which are all US, economics, GDP all US. For example, I've not learned much at all from that deck about whats happening in Africa or India.

AznHisoka 8y ago

Normally I would be, but it seems they have access to special data b/c they fund companies like Coinbase and NextDoor.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

allenleein 8y ago

The report from past five years: Most successful predictions obvious (mobile, China). Lots of misses (AI, cloud computing), and lots that’s wrong (everyone will be using wearables?).