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That's simply not true. Consider an investor with $10000 to throw into the market. And now examine two scenarios: Scenario 1: The spot market price of Bitco
by dgacmu 8y ago
That's simply not true. Consider an investor with $10000 to throw into the market. And now examine two scenarios:
Scenario 1: The spot market price of Bitcoin is $10000. The futures market for 5-day-out Bitcoin is $7000.
Should this investor: (a) Buy one actual bitcoin; or (b) buy 1.4 cash-settled 5-day out bitcoins, and then as soon as the market settles, take the settlement cash and buy bitcoin at the same settlement price (which will net approximately 1.4 bitcoin)?
The answer is obvious. In this case, the reduced futures market price has caused an investor to not buy from the spot market -- which has a negative effect on the spot market price relative to had the futures market not existed (in which case the investor would have had to buy BTC itself).
Senario 2:
Spot bitcoin price is $10000, 5 day out futures price is $14000. Again, where should the bitcoin-wanting investor put their money? The spot market, obviously.
(Scenario 1 also creates an incentive for current BTC holders to sell their bitcoin for cash, and buy 5-day-out bitcoin on the futures market instead, and pocket the difference. If you hold 1 BTC, you can turn it into 1.4 BTC in 5 days -- most rational investors would take that bet. Which directly decreases the spot market price by creating more demand to sell BTC.)