I think the most important question is what 'winter' really means in this context. The new concepts in AI tend to follow the hype cycle so the disillusionment w

I think the most important question is what 'winter' really means in this context. The new concepts in AI tend to follow the hype cycle so the disillusionment will certainly come. One thing is the general public see the amazing things Tesla or Google do with deep learning and extrapolate this thinking we're on the brink of creating artificial general intelligence. The disappointment will be even bigger if DL fails to deliver its promises like self-driving cars. Of course the situation now is different than 30 years ago because AI has proved to be effective in many areas so the research won't just stop. The way I understand this 'AI winter' is that deep learning might be the current local maximum of AI techniques and will soon reach the dead end where tweaking neural networks won't lead to any real progress.