4 ms·

I agree. But with some of the FB valuations, we're talking 30x or 50x valuations -- which are not just hype, these are cocaine and ecstasy fueled hooker party n

I agree. But with some of the FB valuations, we're talking 30x or 50x valuations -- which are not just hype, these are cocaine and ecstasy fueled hooker party numbers. Even if, given their current revenue model, they tripled revenue tomorrow. They're still only a marginal investment with either a 10 to a 50 year payout depending. Those are U.S. federal securities time periods. If I had $40 billion I had to dump for 10 years, I'd put it into bonds before I'd put it into FB. As I was attempting to point out, no matter the hype, once you saturate the market, you can't hype away the math. Right now at the lower end valuations, they are a 30 year investment. I don't think anybody in their right mind would take on those odds considering the population growth curve of the human species. FB is going to have to adopt a seriously different revenue model in order to try and keep their revenue growth curve up and bring down these insane valuation multiples on their revenue -- they simply can't keep relying on new signups and ads. I have a feeling anything they do will be intrusive and along lines that won't be what people like (first 10 friends are free! $5/friend after that!).

deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
wslh 16y ago
Nice writing! can you continue with your analysis of twitter? I am listening!
- elblanco 16y ago
  Thanks! dunno why you ended up downvoted. I'm totally the wrong person to look at Twitter I think. I can find almost no value at all in the entire platform (wheras I do find lots of value in FB). But I know many people here who think it's the bee's knees. Here's a nice look at their revenue model http://www.goospoos.com/2010/01/twitter-revenue-model/ http://www.goospoos.com/2010/01/twitter-revenue-model/ I know the article I linked to ends on a fuzzy note, I'd have ended it quite down. Basically, they have no idea how to revenue their service. And they're really only reaching <20million people anyways (in theory, word on the street is that only a fraction stay as active users). If you ignore the typical VC funded fantasy growth projections, when their internal revenue figures for q3 of 2009 were leaked, they weren't exactly rosy. http://techcrunch.com/2009/07/15/twitters-financial-forecast-shows-first-revenue-in-q3-1-billion-users-in-2013/ http://techcrunch.com/2009/07/15/twitters-financial-forecast... I think even more dysmal is their user growth curve. As of the beginning of this year it looked like this http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/19/state-twittersphere-hubspot/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/19/state-twittersphere-hubspot...
  - wslh 16y ago
    Thanks, what I see is that the users invented what twitter is, and in my perspective they are filling the gap the web left: having a distributed social graph (e.g.: FOAF, etc). Now, about revenue? it seems more related to social analytics, since using the API (with its limitations) it's difficult to do big scale analysis.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

wslh 16y ago

Nice writing! can you continue with your analysis of twitter? I am listening!

elblanco 16y ago
Thanks! dunno why you ended up downvoted. I'm totally the wrong person to look at Twitter I think. I can find almost no value at all in the entire platform (wheras I do find lots of value in FB). But I know many people here who think it's the bee's knees. Here's a nice look at their revenue model http://www.goospoos.com/2010/01/twitter-revenue-model/ http://www.goospoos.com/2010/01/twitter-revenue-model/ I know the article I linked to ends on a fuzzy note, I'd have ended it quite down. Basically, they have no idea how to revenue their service. And they're really only reaching <20million people anyways (in theory, word on the street is that only a fraction stay as active users). If you ignore the typical VC funded fantasy growth projections, when their internal revenue figures for q3 of 2009 were leaked, they weren't exactly rosy. http://techcrunch.com/2009/07/15/twitters-financial-forecast-shows-first-revenue-in-q3-1-billion-users-in-2013/ http://techcrunch.com/2009/07/15/twitters-financial-forecast... I think even more dysmal is their user growth curve. As of the beginning of this year it looked like this http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/19/state-twittersphere-hubspot/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/19/state-twittersphere-hubspot...
- wslh 16y ago
  Thanks, what I see is that the users invented what twitter is, and in my perspective they are filling the gap the web left: having a distributed social graph (e.g.: FOAF, etc). Now, about revenue? it seems more related to social analytics, since using the API (with its limitations) it's difficult to do big scale analysis.