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This effect works in reverse though- they could all make agreements to share technology that the others develop with each other, or form alliances such that the

This effect works in reverse though- they could all make agreements to share technology that the others develop with each other, or form alliances such that there are only one or two outfits actually doing research. Then, since that research isn’t making progress and isn’t going to give them a competitive edge, they collectively deprioritize it to a shadow of its former self, safe in the knowledge that they have research agreements. I would watch for signs that one of the big companies deprioritizes internal research. I think it will be a lagging indicator that the self driving startup scene has cooled and they think that outside startup challengers will be underfunded and easy to buy or compete with. Right now it is accelerating in the opposite direction, but I don’t see why it has to if we don’t see progress in the next couple of years.

bluGill 8y ago
The agreements already exist. Note that is plural - they are watched closely by governments because the come so close to illegal monopoly behavior. One of the reasons it is not a monopoly is because each agreement excludes several big players who form their own alliances. Of course they could have secret agreements that the governments don't know about, but cartels like this are a dangerous game that tend to backfire on the members. Each one that agrees has to play along, but if any one decides to work in secret they are first and get to scoop the competition and win. Since the agreement is already illegal under most national laws there is nothing that the others can do about the cheater.