That's exactly what Bayesian reasoning is. The other time I went to the doctor to complain about back pain, and get an appointment for a physio. The doctor ask

That's exactly what Bayesian reasoning is. The other time I went to the doctor to complain about back pain, and get an appointment for a physio. The doctor asked me to do some movements that didn't seem directly related to my issues. Then she explained that they have to check for a specific condition (like a spinal bulge or something) that, albeit very rare, absolutely needs to be operated on as soon as possible.