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I agree with the last paragraph in practice but I think what will have plateued is investor interest, and not necessarily the technological progress. Right now

I agree with the last paragraph in practice but I think what will have plateued is investor interest, and not necessarily the technological progress. Right now there is a huge investment and if it doesn’t deliver in expected timeframes it could cause another mini AI winter as enthusiasm crashes hard. I bet the biggest threat is patience, because of the sale that self driving is around the corner for so long. In practice though if that happens there will be less people getting payed fat salaries to work on it, and then progress will probably slow, so the effect will be the same.

bluGill 8y ago
I'm not sure how much interest will weather. GM cannot afford to ignore it completely, if Ford invests and gets there, they face the real danger that Ford will have all the patents and a much safer car. What the safety reality of self driving will be is of course an open question. The risk that someone else gets there and proves they are safer is too high for the big auto companies to ignore. Regulators already insist that all companies have any useful safety device when the device proves itself. Note that the car companies are interconnected. The ones that are not investing in this technology have cross agreements with those that are.
- mattnewton 8y ago
  This effect works in reverse though- they could all make agreements to share technology that the others develop with each other, or form alliances such that there are only one or two outfits actually doing research. Then, since that research isn’t making progress and isn’t going to give them a competitive edge, they collectively deprioritize it to a shadow of its former self, safe in the knowledge that they have research agreements. I would watch for signs that one of the big companies deprioritizes internal research. I think it will be a lagging indicator that the self driving startup scene has cooled and they think that outside startup challengers will be underfunded and easy to buy or compete with. Right now it is accelerating in the opposite direction, but I don’t see why it has to if we don’t see progress in the next couple of years.
  - bluGill 8y ago
    The agreements already exist. Note that is plural - they are watched closely by governments because the come so close to illegal monopoly behavior. One of the reasons it is not a monopoly is because each agreement excludes several big players who form their own alliances. Of course they could have secret agreements that the governments don't know about, but cartels like this are a dangerous game that tend to backfire on the members. Each one that agrees has to play along, but if any one decides to work in secret they are first and get to scoop the competition and win. Since the agreement is already illegal under most national laws there is nothing that the others can do about the cheater.

bluGill 8y ago

I'm not sure how much interest will weather. GM cannot afford to ignore it completely, if Ford invests and gets there, they face the real danger that Ford will have all the patents and a much safer car. What the safety reality of self driving will be is of course an open question. The risk that someone else gets there and proves they are safer is too high for the big auto companies to ignore. Regulators already insist that all companies have any useful safety device when the device proves itself. Note that the car companies are interconnected. The ones that are not investing in this technology have cross agreements with those that are.

mattnewton 8y ago
This effect works in reverse though- they could all make agreements to share technology that the others develop with each other, or form alliances such that there are only one or two outfits actually doing research. Then, since that research isn’t making progress and isn’t going to give them a competitive edge, they collectively deprioritize it to a shadow of its former self, safe in the knowledge that they have research agreements. I would watch for signs that one of the big companies deprioritizes internal research. I think it will be a lagging indicator that the self driving startup scene has cooled and they think that outside startup challengers will be underfunded and easy to buy or compete with. Right now it is accelerating in the opposite direction, but I don’t see why it has to if we don’t see progress in the next couple of years.
- bluGill 8y ago
  The agreements already exist. Note that is plural - they are watched closely by governments because the come so close to illegal monopoly behavior. One of the reasons it is not a monopoly is because each agreement excludes several big players who form their own alliances. Of course they could have secret agreements that the governments don't know about, but cartels like this are a dangerous game that tend to backfire on the members. Each one that agrees has to play along, but if any one decides to work in secret they are first and get to scoop the competition and win. Since the agreement is already illegal under most national laws there is nothing that the others can do about the cheater.