3 ms·
This exact case is discussed in Eliezer Yudkowsky's "An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem" [0]. [0] http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes http://yudkowsky.
by yasp 8y ago
This exact case is discussed in Eliezer Yudkowsky's "An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem" [0].
[0] http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes
- Retric 8y agoThat's describing probabilities of truth, not the correct responses to those probables. I did not say false positives or false negatives etc, I simply said the post diagnosis odds. Doctors and patients have little reason to care about odds directly they care about Risk which is ~= odds * harm. Odds going from say 10 to 15% or 0.015% to 0.02% don't have big impacts on your net Risk.
- yasp 8y agoGood point