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That's not how bubbles work. It can still be worthless snakeoil even if someone pays you for it.

bdcravens 8y ago
Of course. Many have become rich investing in startups that added no value to the world as well. My point is the many arguments that this is a just a house of cards that will inevitably come crashing down, and I don't think that's the case. A bubble by definition has to pop. A fad has to pass. At what point does something become entrenched to the point that its continuing existence is essentially guaranteed?
- cableshaft 8y ago
  The closest thing I've found for estimating how long something nonperishable (i.e. technology or an idea, not food or animals) will stick around is with a theory called The Lindy Effect. Generally speaking, the longer something has lasted, the longer you can expect it to last. So if something has lasted for X amount of time, you can expect it to last for X more amount of time. And 5 years from then, if it's still around, you can expect it to last another X+5 years. In other words, most things don't last very long, but things that do last for a long time tend to stick around a lot longer than you might normally expect them to. Like people predicting the death of Facebook. Sure, something will probably eventually take it down or become the next Facebook. But it's been around for so long now, a betting man shouldn't bet on it happening anytime soon. Now one might argue that on the day Myspace died this effect would predict that it would be around for yet another 6+ years (or whatever it ended up being). And to that I'd say that this is a guide for predicting future behavior, not a crystal ball that can accurately predict everything forever. And some would argue that the writing was on the wall for Myspace long before it actually went kaput anyway. So Bitcoin has been around in some form or another for 9+ years, and withstood a huge laundry list of setbacks, tests of its security, and evolution of the ecosystem in the meantime. So it's probably going to stick around for awhile. Meanwhile, XYZCoin and it's hot new ICO has been around for about five days, so there's nothing to suggest that it's going to stick around for very long and you should be a lot more careful about putting your money into it. More info on the Lindy Effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

Of course. Many have become rich investing in startups that added no value to the world as well. My point is the many arguments that this is a just a house of cards that will inevitably come crashing down, and I don't think that's the case. A bubble by definition has to pop. A fad has to pass. At what point does something become entrenched to the point that its continuing existence is essentially guaranteed?

cableshaft 8y ago
The closest thing I've found for estimating how long something nonperishable (i.e. technology or an idea, not food or animals) will stick around is with a theory called The Lindy Effect. Generally speaking, the longer something has lasted, the longer you can expect it to last. So if something has lasted for X amount of time, you can expect it to last for X more amount of time. And 5 years from then, if it's still around, you can expect it to last another X+5 years. In other words, most things don't last very long, but things that do last for a long time tend to stick around a lot longer than you might normally expect them to. Like people predicting the death of Facebook. Sure, something will probably eventually take it down or become the next Facebook. But it's been around for so long now, a betting man shouldn't bet on it happening anytime soon. Now one might argue that on the day Myspace died this effect would predict that it would be around for yet another 6+ years (or whatever it ended up being). And to that I'd say that this is a guide for predicting future behavior, not a crystal ball that can accurately predict everything forever. And some would argue that the writing was on the wall for Myspace long before it actually went kaput anyway. So Bitcoin has been around in some form or another for 9+ years, and withstood a huge laundry list of setbacks, tests of its security, and evolution of the ecosystem in the meantime. So it's probably going to stick around for awhile. Meanwhile, XYZCoin and it's hot new ICO has been around for about five days, so there's nothing to suggest that it's going to stick around for very long and you should be a lot more careful about putting your money into it. More info on the Lindy Effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect