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Ask HN: Anyone have a personal long term investment strategy based on futurism?
Starting to get interested in investing I don't really feel comfortable following the traditional "put it in indexes" advice.
I've read Graham and Malkiel generally really agreed with their philosophies, but I think they are targeted at a macro environment of US hegemony and more or less stable growth. My problem is that I see these trends changing in a few important ways over the following let's say 2 decades:
1) I think the era of the dollar as a bully reserve currency is coming to an end. I think the ability of the US to influence and profit at the expense of global markets is going to somewhat decrease while China takes some of that power (already happening to some significant degree)and possibly supercedes us. If Europe gets it's shit together I think they have the same potential. I think US markets take for granted that we run the world and it's going to hurt us when we have to start fighting on even or even lower ground.
2) I think US markets are due for a crash as prices keep flying up yet I don't see real value being created and I think we've exhausted a lot of the tools (QE, traditional monetary policy) that have buffered us against bad outcomes in the past meaning the next crash could be severe. (I understand this is borderline flame baiting and I don't fault people who disagree but I do believe this)
I understand the futility of trying to time things but's it's hard to convince myself to dump money into something I don't really believe in.
3) The moves towards sustainable energy and away from fossil fuels. Also related changes in transportation and infrastructure.
4) A general belief that access to cheap technology will benefit developing countries over the long term
Basically I don't expect everyone or even many people to agree with me on some of these points but I haven't really had any success in finding people interested in discussing these ideas.