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I think the point is that the chance of all of those IF conditionals being true is close to nil, which means that Tesla is currently over-valued.
by pwinnski 8y ago
I think the point is that the chance of all of those IF conditionals being true is close to nil, which means that Tesla is currently over-valued.
- nkoren 8y agoNo, it says that for the present valuation to be fair, then all those conditions must be true. But if all those conditions were true, then Tesla would control at least a quarter of the global automotive market, and its valuation would be considerably higher. Obviously not all of those conditions will be true, however -- only the craziest Tesla bulls would argue that. Conversely, if none of them are true, then Tesla is definitely over-valued. But I think you'd have to be a pretty crazy Tesla bear to make that argument. Finally, if those conditionals are a mix of true and false... well, that doesn't really doesn't tell you much about Tesla's fair market value, which is why I don't think this is a particularly useful analysis.