>> "most cars are powered by electricity in 10 years" > Unlikely. The average age of a car on the road is about 11.5 years (source: http://news.ihsmarkit.com/p

>> "most cars are powered by electricity in 10 years" > Unlikely. The average age of a car on the road is about 11.5 years (source: http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release/automotive/average-a... http://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-release/automotive/average-a...), so even if electric vehicle sales went to 100% tomorrow (and they won't), this wouldn't be true. It's possible fuel prices will skyrocket in the meantime and get people to scrap their ICEs, but with fracking and other deep extraction, I wouldn't bet on it. I think this is extremely likely, but let's clarify: it might not be that most existing cars in 10 years will be powered by electricity, but I feel strongly that EVs will dominate new car sales. As a caveat, your 11.5 year number refers only to US cars. Oil price fluctuations are basically irrelevant at this point: EV battery pack prices are only decreasing, ranges are only increasing. Aside from that, EVs win on cost of ownership (maintenance, electricity costs), noise, and power. >> "if Tesla can make those cars with sufficient margin and quality control" >Possible, but I think it's unlikely. Despite year after year of promises by Musk, Tesla still struggles with both margins quality control, and I haven't seen any evidence that it's getting better (and there's every reason to believe it will get worse as they seem a bit desperate to scale up production) Tesla's margins from Models S and X are healthy (mid 20%s). Their spending is almost entirely from capex -- which would be expected from scaling up a battery plant and new model line. Operating costs Q12018 were 1.05B (model 3 at 2k/week), operating costs Q12017 were 925M (model 3 not in production). "Every reason to believe that [quality control] will get worse as they seem a bit desperate to scale up production" doesn't make sense?