5 ms·

Silicon Valley tech bubble is larger than it was in 2000, and the end is coming

39 points by spking 8y ago

umeshunni 8y ago
It's amusing that the image attached to the article is of a company neither in Silicon Valley, nor in tech.
- icedchai 8y ago
  All companies are tech companies now. Didn't you know?
vinceguidry 8y ago
Don't immanentize the eschaton, bro.
- mr_spothawk 8y ago
  > eschaton > n. last thing; used in theology to refer to the climax of history, culminating in the Last Judgement.
  - theoh 8y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanentize_the_eschaton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanentize_the_eschaton
nimos 8y ago
I'm happy as the next person to eye roll a lot of the stuff that gets funded but the world is just fundamentally different compared to 2000. The average time an internet user spent online at home was ~3 hours in 2000 and is about 18 now.[0] People are just so much more willing, and able, to spend time and money online now days I would be surprised if there was 2000 style crash. [0]http://www.digitalcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2017-Digital-Future-Report.pdf http://www.digitalcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2017...
- jdmoreira 8y ago
  Crashes are a phenomenon of investor mass hysteria I don’t think they are correlated with metrics of the companies they have invested in. When enough people belive they have been throwing money at a hype, panic will ensue and a crash will happen.
  - slededit 8y ago
    I don't think it will effect the industry nearly as much as it did in the past. Tech is simply more integrated into society now, the fundamental thesis is proven in a way that it wasn't in the 2000s. Its akin to the early days of TV when it was a luxury to the 70s-00s where it was where the average american spent most of their free time (and note that its dominance has been supplanted by the internet).
- AnimalMuppet 8y ago
  18 hours online? Per what? Per day? That seems... unlikely. I looked at your link, but it's 160 pages. Can you point me to a page number?
  - nimos 8y ago
    Ah yeah my bad, its per week, page 16 in pdf pages.
    - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
      I can believe 18 hours per week. In fact, I'm surprised it's that low.
- sgnelson 8y ago
  Before every single crash of the past 100 years, someone always says this: "but the world is just fundamentally different..." Yes, you are correct, the world is fundamentally different. And it was fundamentally different in 1893, 1929, 1987, 1999, 2008.... Just because things are fundamentally different has yet to stop a crash from occurring. Things may be fundamentally different, but one thing hasn't changed; Boom and bust is a fundamental aspect of capitalism. It's not if, it's when.
jacksmith21006 8y ago
Depends on the company. Google has a forward P/E of 24 and last quarter grew 26% yoy. That is anything but expensive.
- tandr 8y ago
  And they are producing what exactly? "Better ads"? Google's contribution to society (if I may be bold) are products that they are not selling directly - search, maps, and gmail. Maps and gmail are replaceable, search is not yet. Their influence on how we are consuming information is nothing short of amazing and incredible, and it has long-lasting effect on all levels of current (western?) life. But... is it something "sellable" to a consumer? Not as third eye to a big organizations/governments, or tensor-something-analytics to a research tank, but something to an everyday Joe and Marta?
  - tested23 8y ago
    Are you trying to argue that google products are not profitable?
    - tandr 8y ago
      No, that's not what I am saying. Profitable today != profitable tomorrow. They have "the power" now, I am not sure they will have the same endless income tomorrow. I am of the opinion that unless you sell something to a wider public, you will exhaust that niche supply chain eventually [1]. This will first limit, and then end an expansion sooner or later, and since niches tend to collapse more often than wast "general public", and you run out of income. How soon that will happen, and in what form will it ends is a totally different question. BTW, becoming evil is one sad, but valid outcome. [1] Of course unless you make this "niche" bigger through different means, be that by making product more accessible for wider audience, or making changes that your product becomes a "must have" in societal terms, thus growing the audience instead of your specialization niche.
      - jacksmith21006 8y ago
hughc 8y ago
"Dropbox also went public. It had a first-day pop of 36 percent; however, with only 200,000 paying customers compared to its 500 million users, I would be hesitant to rush in to buy, even as it comes off that year-to-date high considerably." Um, really? I think the number is closer to 11M.

39 points by spking 8y ago

umeshunni 8y ago

It's amusing that the image attached to the article is of a company neither in Silicon Valley, nor in tech.

icedchai 8y ago
All companies are tech companies now. Didn't you know?

vinceguidry 8y ago

Don't immanentize the eschaton, bro.

mr_spothawk 8y ago
> eschaton > n. last thing; used in theology to refer to the climax of history, culminating in the Last Judgement.
- theoh 8y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanentize_the_eschaton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanentize_the_eschaton

nimos 8y ago

I'm happy as the next person to eye roll a lot of the stuff that gets funded but the world is just fundamentally different compared to 2000. The average time an internet user spent online at home was ~3 hours in 2000 and is about 18 now.[0] People are just so much more willing, and able, to spend time and money online now days I would be surprised if there was 2000 style crash. [0]http://www.digitalcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2017-Digital-Future-Report.pdf http://www.digitalcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2017...

jdmoreira 8y ago
Crashes are a phenomenon of investor mass hysteria I don’t think they are correlated with metrics of the companies they have invested in. When enough people belive they have been throwing money at a hype, panic will ensue and a crash will happen.
- slededit 8y ago
  I don't think it will effect the industry nearly as much as it did in the past. Tech is simply more integrated into society now, the fundamental thesis is proven in a way that it wasn't in the 2000s. Its akin to the early days of TV when it was a luxury to the 70s-00s where it was where the average american spent most of their free time (and note that its dominance has been supplanted by the internet).
AnimalMuppet 8y ago
18 hours online? Per what? Per day? That seems... unlikely. I looked at your link, but it's 160 pages. Can you point me to a page number?
- nimos 8y ago
  Ah yeah my bad, its per week, page 16 in pdf pages.
  - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
    I can believe 18 hours per week. In fact, I'm surprised it's that low.
sgnelson 8y ago
Before every single crash of the past 100 years, someone always says this: "but the world is just fundamentally different..." Yes, you are correct, the world is fundamentally different. And it was fundamentally different in 1893, 1929, 1987, 1999, 2008.... Just because things are fundamentally different has yet to stop a crash from occurring. Things may be fundamentally different, but one thing hasn't changed; Boom and bust is a fundamental aspect of capitalism. It's not if, it's when.

jacksmith21006 8y ago

Depends on the company. Google has a forward P/E of 24 and last quarter grew 26% yoy. That is anything but expensive.

tandr 8y ago
And they are producing what exactly? "Better ads"? Google's contribution to society (if I may be bold) are products that they are not selling directly - search, maps, and gmail. Maps and gmail are replaceable, search is not yet. Their influence on how we are consuming information is nothing short of amazing and incredible, and it has long-lasting effect on all levels of current (western?) life. But... is it something "sellable" to a consumer? Not as third eye to a big organizations/governments, or tensor-something-analytics to a research tank, but something to an everyday Joe and Marta?
- tested23 8y ago
  Are you trying to argue that google products are not profitable?
  - tandr 8y ago
    No, that's not what I am saying. Profitable today != profitable tomorrow. They have "the power" now, I am not sure they will have the same endless income tomorrow. I am of the opinion that unless you sell something to a wider public, you will exhaust that niche supply chain eventually [1]. This will first limit, and then end an expansion sooner or later, and since niches tend to collapse more often than wast "general public", and you run out of income. How soon that will happen, and in what form will it ends is a totally different question. BTW, becoming evil is one sad, but valid outcome. [1] Of course unless you make this "niche" bigger through different means, be that by making product more accessible for wider audience, or making changes that your product becomes a "must have" in societal terms, thus growing the audience instead of your specialization niche.
    - jacksmith21006 8y ago

hughc 8y ago

"Dropbox also went public. It had a first-day pop of 36 percent; however, with only 200,000 paying customers compared to its 500 million users, I would be hesitant to rush in to buy, even as it comes off that year-to-date high considerably." Um, really? I think the number is closer to 11M.