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1. I agree. I was pointing that out more to show that even with impressive growth rates they still have a long way to go. 2. I agree that TFR declines with wea
by jeffreyrogers 8y ago
1. I agree. I was pointing that out more to show that even with impressive growth rates they still have a long way to go.
2. I agree that TFR declines with wealth, but it is still true that if your population is growing your economy has to grow faster to compensate for it. I am not sure how quickly TFR falls as the economy grows. If it lags significantly this will still have an effect.
3. This one is trickier. There are large differences between the poor African countries and the previously poor Asian countries. The authoritarian governments in South Korea, Taiwan, and China actually helped these countries get out of poverty because they could enforce policies that otherwise would not be popular, like redistribution of land to peasants and protecting infant industries from foreign competition while they developed. Japan was a little different (actually so was China) but had similar policies. These policies are not being implemented in Africa.
The corruption in Asia and the corruption in Africa are also of a different kind. South Korea allowed some corruption as long as the managers of the companies involved where able to produce globally competitive products. In Africa the corruption has largely enriched a small number of well connected people while doing nothing to help the local population. I am not sure how corrupt Ethiopia is.
Either way, I wasn't talking about corruption as much as the difficulty of doing business in Ethiopia, which seems to be difficult if you do not already have money and connections, which suggests that the benefits of economic growth will be more concentrated than they otherwise could be and they have in the Asian countries that successfully emerged from poverty.
Africa has had 50 years to adopt better policies, but instead we see frequent civil wars, endemic corruption, and poor governance. These problems aren't insurmountable, but they are large.
- RobertoG 8y agoI'm puzzled by your comment: >>" The authoritarian governments in South Korea, Taiwan, and China actually helped these countries get out of poverty because they could enforce policies that otherwise would not be popular, like redistribution of land to peasants and protecting infant industries from foreign competition while they developed." Those are not popular policies? do you mean popular for the IMF and the World bank or what?
- jeffreyrogers 8y agoWell the land redistribution isn't popular with landowners, who tend to have a lot of power. The industry protection isn't popular with the IMF and World Bank and is often abused or helps corrupt people in government funnel money to their family and friends. You're probably right that sometimes there is popular support for these policies but it's hard to get them in place.
- ycomb477 8y agoThe answer here is education. Build schools, problem solved.
- dzonga 8y agoZimbabwe built schools. But corrupted it's citizens.
- jeffreyrogers 8y agoSchools don't help if there are no jobs after graduation, which is the case in much of Africa. The problems these countries face is staggering, not insurmountable, but really hard.