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Just a few years ago, Libya was the jewel of Africa and led in almost every social and economic metric. I wonder what happened there to throw them so horribly

Just a few years ago, Libya was the jewel of Africa and led in almost every social and economic metric. I wonder what happened there to throw them so horribly off course?

dotancohen 8y ago
Kadafi gave up his nukes. We saw the same thing happen in Ukraine after they gave up their nukes. Do you know what is happening in Iran these past few weeks? And I say this as an Israeli, whom Iran has already threatened to destroy. I understand their position. Moreso if you consider which two countries border Iran to the east and to the west, and what has happened in those two countries not long after the turn of the millennium. Don't get me wrong, I realize that Europe, Israel, and the US are better off with a non-nuclear Iran. But having seen Libya and Ukraine, I completely understand the Iranian position.
- IkmoIkmo 8y ago
  Yeah I recall Mehdi Hasan's article about this some 7 years ago: "Wouldn't it be rational for Iran – geographically encircled, politically isolated, feeling threatened – to want its own arsenal of nukes, for defensive and deterrent purposes?" Pointing out the difference between America, and its allies, going to "war with non-nuclear Iraq" and their "diplomacy with nuclear-armed North Korea", Hasan concluded: "The simple fact is there is no alternative to diplomacy, no matter how truculent or paranoid the leaders of Iran might seem to western eyes." [0] As for the OP's question... it was a dictatorship for 40 years driven not by good governance but by oil money. You either have a dictatorship that builds very strong institutions for a post-dictator rule, or you don't. And particularly the oil-dependent states forgo building the right institutions, because an oil-rich country doesn't need them. Without institutions and civil society a dictatorship erupts into chaos after the dictator dies, particularly if it happens abruptly. In terms of institutions and governance Libya was far from the jewel of Africa. It was never designed to last. It's more akin to someone living on creditcard debt for a few years before it all comes crashing down. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/nov/17/iran-want-nuclear-bomb https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/nov/17/iran-w...
  - tormeh 8y ago
    North Korea has survived until now not because they recently got nukes, but because they are holding South Korea hostage. The moment foreign troops near Pyongyang, conventional NK artillery would have leveled Seoul completely. Millions of rich-country people in a nation allied to the US would die. Also China would have been pissed.
- gspetr 8y ago
  Ukrainian nukes were not theirs to begin with. NATO was as interested in keeping the nuclear club to a minimum as well as Russia.
  - dotancohen 8y ago
    By that reason they were nobody's nukes. Ukraine was a successor state of the USSR, and operational control of the weapons was a technological matter, not a political matter. The weapons delivery systems (missiles and heavy bombers) were located in Ukraine, as were the development and production chains. In other words, the actual people who built the missiles would simply swap out an electronic control component to acquire operation control of the devices. These are the same people who voted >90% for Ukrainian independence and who distrusted the other large USSR successor state, Russia.
- wahern 8y ago
  An aside: I was listening to a Rick Steves (American celebrity traveler) presentation on the radio the other day. He was getting too preachy and just as I was about to change the channel he recounted a story about a trip to Iran. They were stuck in traffic in sweltering heat and the driver says "death to traffic". This caught Rick off guard and he inquired further. Long story short, "death to FOO" is apparently an idiomatic phrase in Iran, especially in a political context, going back to the early 20th century. From http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=31116 http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=31116 The phrase became popular during the Persian Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911), when political activists would chant "zende ba ___" ("long live ___") in support of a policy or leader, or "marg bar ___" in opposition. These two phrases became entrenched within Iranian political discourse, and during the Iranian Revolution of 1979, swarms of protestors took to the streets chanting "marg bar Shah" to express their dissatisfaction with Iran's monarchy. "Marg bar ___" and "zende ba ___" have continued to live on as colloquial phrases incorporated into political chants, and they have been appropriated to express opposition to or support for any number of subjects. It's similar to how English speakers might say, "damn Iran". Such an utterance doesn't imply that one wishes all Iranians to burn in Hell for eternity. I mention this because in American English "destroy" is a very strong literal term unless there's obvious sarcasm. Going back and parsing several infamous Iranian statements (official, or made by leaders)--"death to", "wiping Israel off the map", etc--I think it's fair to say that one could reasonably construe those statements as deliberately worded to refer to the Israeli political state. Of course, what Iran has said and what it has done (e.g. support terrorism) are quite different things. And destroying the political state vs the population is arguably a distinction without a difference as a practical matter. But in as much as Americans and Israelis believe that because of the seemingly common, blunt language that Iranians en mass wish to see the U.S. and even Israel literally destroyed, I think there's some unfair, possibly willful misinterpretation.
jbattle 8y ago
Also Libya's economy was very dependent on a small number of energy resources. Which very often drives a lot of problems for a country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse I'm hopeful for Ethiopia that their economy being much more diverse (especially once the hydroelectric dam comes online), their economy will prove more resiliant

Just a few years ago, Libya was the jewel of Africa and led in almost every social and economic metric. I wonder what happened there to throw them so horribly off course?

dotancohen 8y ago

Kadafi gave up his nukes. We saw the same thing happen in Ukraine after they gave up their nukes. Do you know what is happening in Iran these past few weeks? And I say this as an Israeli, whom Iran has already threatened to destroy. I understand their position. Moreso if you consider which two countries border Iran to the east and to the west, and what has happened in those two countries not long after the turn of the millennium. Don't get me wrong, I realize that Europe, Israel, and the US are better off with a non-nuclear Iran. But having seen Libya and Ukraine, I completely understand the Iranian position.

IkmoIkmo 8y ago
Yeah I recall Mehdi Hasan's article about this some 7 years ago: "Wouldn't it be rational for Iran – geographically encircled, politically isolated, feeling threatened – to want its own arsenal of nukes, for defensive and deterrent purposes?" Pointing out the difference between America, and its allies, going to "war with non-nuclear Iraq" and their "diplomacy with nuclear-armed North Korea", Hasan concluded: "The simple fact is there is no alternative to diplomacy, no matter how truculent or paranoid the leaders of Iran might seem to western eyes." [0] As for the OP's question... it was a dictatorship for 40 years driven not by good governance but by oil money. You either have a dictatorship that builds very strong institutions for a post-dictator rule, or you don't. And particularly the oil-dependent states forgo building the right institutions, because an oil-rich country doesn't need them. Without institutions and civil society a dictatorship erupts into chaos after the dictator dies, particularly if it happens abruptly. In terms of institutions and governance Libya was far from the jewel of Africa. It was never designed to last. It's more akin to someone living on creditcard debt for a few years before it all comes crashing down. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/nov/17/iran-want-nuclear-bomb https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/nov/17/iran-w...
- tormeh 8y ago
  North Korea has survived until now not because they recently got nukes, but because they are holding South Korea hostage. The moment foreign troops near Pyongyang, conventional NK artillery would have leveled Seoul completely. Millions of rich-country people in a nation allied to the US would die. Also China would have been pissed.
gspetr 8y ago
Ukrainian nukes were not theirs to begin with. NATO was as interested in keeping the nuclear club to a minimum as well as Russia.
- dotancohen 8y ago
  By that reason they were nobody's nukes. Ukraine was a successor state of the USSR, and operational control of the weapons was a technological matter, not a political matter. The weapons delivery systems (missiles and heavy bombers) were located in Ukraine, as were the development and production chains. In other words, the actual people who built the missiles would simply swap out an electronic control component to acquire operation control of the devices. These are the same people who voted >90% for Ukrainian independence and who distrusted the other large USSR successor state, Russia.
wahern 8y ago
An aside: I was listening to a Rick Steves (American celebrity traveler) presentation on the radio the other day. He was getting too preachy and just as I was about to change the channel he recounted a story about a trip to Iran. They were stuck in traffic in sweltering heat and the driver says "death to traffic". This caught Rick off guard and he inquired further. Long story short, "death to FOO" is apparently an idiomatic phrase in Iran, especially in a political context, going back to the early 20th century. From http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=31116 http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=31116 The phrase became popular during the Persian Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911), when political activists would chant "zende ba ___" ("long live ___") in support of a policy or leader, or "marg bar ___" in opposition. These two phrases became entrenched within Iranian political discourse, and during the Iranian Revolution of 1979, swarms of protestors took to the streets chanting "marg bar Shah" to express their dissatisfaction with Iran's monarchy. "Marg bar ___" and "zende ba ___" have continued to live on as colloquial phrases incorporated into political chants, and they have been appropriated to express opposition to or support for any number of subjects. It's similar to how English speakers might say, "damn Iran". Such an utterance doesn't imply that one wishes all Iranians to burn in Hell for eternity. I mention this because in American English "destroy" is a very strong literal term unless there's obvious sarcasm. Going back and parsing several infamous Iranian statements (official, or made by leaders)--"death to", "wiping Israel off the map", etc--I think it's fair to say that one could reasonably construe those statements as deliberately worded to refer to the Israeli political state. Of course, what Iran has said and what it has done (e.g. support terrorism) are quite different things. And destroying the political state vs the population is arguably a distinction without a difference as a practical matter. But in as much as Americans and Israelis believe that because of the seemingly common, blunt language that Iranians en mass wish to see the U.S. and even Israel literally destroyed, I think there's some unfair, possibly willful misinterpretation.

jbattle 8y ago

Also Libya's economy was very dependent on a small number of energy resources. Which very often drives a lot of problems for a country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse I'm hopeful for Ethiopia that their economy being much more diverse (especially once the hydroelectric dam comes online), their economy will prove more resiliant