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There's nothing inherently wrong with a low birth rate -- except that modern economies seem to be massive pyramid schemes that require a never-ending stream of

There's nothing inherently wrong with a low birth rate -- except that modern economies seem to be massive pyramid schemes that require a never-ending stream of fresh blood to remain solvent. It's not like the Japanese are at risk of going extinct; once the population falls below a certain threshold, the birth rate will start rising again. They'll survive. But what may not survive is the economic system that borrows against its own future -- a system that is only sustainable if growth continues, unabated, forever.

virmundi 8y ago
You’re presuming no external existential threat. The Chinese have a large, but aging population. They could move into a weakened Japan within 20 years to take their infrastructure.
- magnusdeus123 8y ago
  Modern war doesn't work that way. In fact, today, 'war' doesn't actually work at all. What China wants is for it's hegemony to be recognized. Why invade Japan and risk it being highly unpopular at home; being sanctioned by every major developed economy; militarization of it's neighbourhood, etc. etc. (on top of actually being unable to actually conquer Japan) Within 20 years, it could be well within the position of dictating Japan's foreign, or even some domestic, polices to such a degree to have it essentially as a vassal state. Japan perhaps willingly chooses to make certain concessions in return for favourable treatment for China - say if the two countries considered closer trade relations at one point. There's also diplomatic & soft power. An aging Japan turning to immigration which de facto will largely result in an influx of Chinese (already the largest foreign minority in Japan). These chinese immigrants over time have more power within Japanese policy. If China manages to launch it's own cultural industries to the degree of S. Korea's or Japan's, that would make room for more Chinese influence. But in the end it works both ways. Young Chinese imitate certain aspects of Japanese culture as well. It doesn't really need to end in war or even aggression for both countries to slowly learn to have a meaningful relationship with each other.

virmundi 8y ago

You’re presuming no external existential threat. The Chinese have a large, but aging population. They could move into a weakened Japan within 20 years to take their infrastructure.

magnusdeus123 8y ago
Modern war doesn't work that way. In fact, today, 'war' doesn't actually work at all. What China wants is for it's hegemony to be recognized. Why invade Japan and risk it being highly unpopular at home; being sanctioned by every major developed economy; militarization of it's neighbourhood, etc. etc. (on top of actually being unable to actually conquer Japan) Within 20 years, it could be well within the position of dictating Japan's foreign, or even some domestic, polices to such a degree to have it essentially as a vassal state. Japan perhaps willingly chooses to make certain concessions in return for favourable treatment for China - say if the two countries considered closer trade relations at one point. There's also diplomatic & soft power. An aging Japan turning to immigration which de facto will largely result in an influx of Chinese (already the largest foreign minority in Japan). These chinese immigrants over time have more power within Japanese policy. If China manages to launch it's own cultural industries to the degree of S. Korea's or Japan's, that would make room for more Chinese influence. But in the end it works both ways. Young Chinese imitate certain aspects of Japanese culture as well. It doesn't really need to end in war or even aggression for both countries to slowly learn to have a meaningful relationship with each other.