Pearl's words from the Introduction of "BAYESIANISM AND CAUSALITY, OR, WHY I AM ONLY A HALF-BAYESIAN": "I turned Bayesian in 1971, as soon as I began reading S

Pearl's words from the Introduction of "BAYESIANISM AND CAUSALITY, OR, WHY I AM ONLY A HALF-BAYESIAN": "I turned Bayesian in 1971, as soon as I began reading Savage’s monograph The Foundations of Statistical Inference [Savage, 1962]. The arguments were unassailable: (i) It is plain silly to ignore what we know, (ii) It is natural and useful to cast what we know in the language of probabilities, and (iii) If our subjective probabilities are erroneous, their impact will get washed out in due time, as the number of observations increases. Thirty years later, I am still a devout Bayesian in the sense of (i), but I now doubt the wisdom of (ii) and I know that, in general, (iii) is false."