3 ms·

I'd like to ask the question "when do you intend to retire?". My father is 64 and although he's had an era of poor health a few years ago (since recovered) he

by dotBen 16y ago

I'd like to ask the question "when do you intend to retire?". My father is 64 and although he's had an era of poor health a few years ago (since recovered) he has no interest in retiring (he's a highly sought after executive consultant in his field). He's probably the first generation to actually question the whole notion of stopping work at 65 and quietly going off to die. Like most of us on HN, he is able to work in a career he enjoys that isn't labor intensive (thus capable for older people) The WorldBank says the average life expectancy in USA is 78 (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?cid=GPD_10 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?cid=GPD_1...) so if you finally gave up work at 73 that's only an average of 5 years you need to live without an income - and that for most successful professional workers this is probably manageable through savings and/or reverse mortgage on a reasonable sized house. The pension industry hasn't really changed in 50 years yet the way we live, work, and end our lives has changed (and continues to change rapidly). If the shift is towards us working longer that means we need them less, so there is no reason for them to adapt.

donaldc 16y ago
so if you finally gave up work at 73 that's only an average of 5 years you need to live without an income Not necessarily. A couple of reasons: * Life expectancy in developed countries has been increasing by well over a year every decade. * Life expectancy for someone at age 73 is notably higher; remember that the average of 78 includes everyone who has died before age 73. Personally, I come from comparatively long-lived ancestors. I have no desire to find out when I'm 78 that I'm likely to live to 90 or 100, but have no money left.
- sbov 16y ago
  Yeah, the fact that life expectancy went up by a year because fewer newborns died doesn't have any effect on you when you're already 25. This is why I find the life expectancy that people quote pointless as a stat when it comes to personal planning. What I really want to know is: when looking at people who have made it to my age, what is the life expectancy?
  - sokoloff 16y ago
    It's probably higher than most people think (which is scary for their retirement prospects, but otherwise great). If you're 70 in the US right now, you're a favorite to see 80. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html
- dotBen 16y ago
  You should definitely get a good pension then. But remember that pension funds can also run out of money (depending on the type of pension you have, etc) I think what I was trying to communicate, perhaps not succinctly enough, was that I would rather work a lot further into what most deem 'retirement years' and then live off incomes from investment for a shorter period of time towards the end. Ok that means I have to had had success building those investments but most of us are on HN cos we're entrepreneurial and I've not done too bad so far (I'm 29).
jambalaya 16y ago
Likewise my Dad is 74 and is in a similar position. Quite frankly, he's super excited about what he does.
gamble 16y ago
None of my grandparents were in a position to work after 70. If you're able to live independently at that age and not in a home, you're doing pretty well. I'm not going to plan on being healthy enough to work.
jonp 16y ago
The figure quoted of 78 is what's known as "period" life expectancy. It's life expectancy from birth based on mortality rates in 2008, without any future improvements. In practice death rates are expected to continue falling over time. Looking at "cohort" life expectancy which allows for expected future improvements can give a considerably higher life expectancy. Also, it's not enough to look at the average. If life expectancy is 85 then you shouldn't plan to die at 85. It's more like rolling a die and having an age of death of any of 66, 77, 82, 88, 92, or 100 [1]. Maybe you need no savings, maybe you need lots. It's hard to plan for this without an annuity. [1] worked out a while ago so that it has the same mean, variance and four higher moments as life expectancy for a UK mortality table.

by dotBen 16y ago

donaldc 16y ago

so if you finally gave up work at 73 that's only an average of 5 years you need to live without an income Not necessarily. A couple of reasons: * Life expectancy in developed countries has been increasing by well over a year every decade. * Life expectancy for someone at age 73 is notably higher; remember that the average of 78 includes everyone who has died before age 73. Personally, I come from comparatively long-lived ancestors. I have no desire to find out when I'm 78 that I'm likely to live to 90 or 100, but have no money left.

sbov 16y ago
Yeah, the fact that life expectancy went up by a year because fewer newborns died doesn't have any effect on you when you're already 25. This is why I find the life expectancy that people quote pointless as a stat when it comes to personal planning. What I really want to know is: when looking at people who have made it to my age, what is the life expectancy?
- sokoloff 16y ago
  It's probably higher than most people think (which is scary for their retirement prospects, but otherwise great). If you're 70 in the US right now, you're a favorite to see 80. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html
dotBen 16y ago
You should definitely get a good pension then. But remember that pension funds can also run out of money (depending on the type of pension you have, etc) I think what I was trying to communicate, perhaps not succinctly enough, was that I would rather work a lot further into what most deem 'retirement years' and then live off incomes from investment for a shorter period of time towards the end. Ok that means I have to had had success building those investments but most of us are on HN cos we're entrepreneurial and I've not done too bad so far (I'm 29).

jambalaya 16y ago

Likewise my Dad is 74 and is in a similar position. Quite frankly, he's super excited about what he does.

gamble 16y ago

None of my grandparents were in a position to work after 70. If you're able to live independently at that age and not in a home, you're doing pretty well. I'm not going to plan on being healthy enough to work.

jonp 16y ago

The figure quoted of 78 is what's known as "period" life expectancy. It's life expectancy from birth based on mortality rates in 2008, without any future improvements. In practice death rates are expected to continue falling over time. Looking at "cohort" life expectancy which allows for expected future improvements can give a considerably higher life expectancy. Also, it's not enough to look at the average. If life expectancy is 85 then you shouldn't plan to die at 85. It's more like rolling a die and having an age of death of any of 66, 77, 82, 88, 92, or 100 [1]. Maybe you need no savings, maybe you need lots. It's hard to plan for this without an annuity. [1] worked out a while ago so that it has the same mean, variance and four higher moments as life expectancy for a UK mortality table.