5 ms·

Is that if the price is constant over that time? Couldn't you just price the product to reflect roughly constant value, giving you linear return over time?

hedora 8y ago
Yes. A reasonable rate of real return plus inflation is 7%. 1.07^144 is 17,000. So, if the album costs $10 in 2018 dollars, it should cost $170,000 at expiration. Figuring in inflation and conservative returns give 5% per year, so 1125x markup. The album would only be $11,250 in 2018 dollars at term expiration.
pavpanchekha 8y ago
Generally you imagine that future money decreases in value (in real terms). For example, you need to at least beat inflation-protected bonds! So in order to get constant real terms over the life of a piece of art, the actual price to consume has to increase exponentially over time. But in fact we get the sense that most art drops in consumer value over time (how many times have you listened to Gangnam Style in the last month?) so exponentially increasing price would not bring linear return.
dsr_ 8y ago
Only if demand is relatively constant. Nothing is less constant than the demand for entertainment, and that's reflected in current pricing. A new blockbuster movie costs $15 in 3D, $12 in 2D. A month later it costs $6 at the second-run theater. Three months later it costs $20 on Blu-Ray for as many times as you want to watch it. A year later it's included in your HBO subscription. A year after that you can buy the disc for $10. Ten years later you can buy the whole series for $30. Forty years later it gets shown as 3AM filler on a cable network you don't pay for separately. 144 years later there are film scholars who have heard of it.
- francisofascii 8y ago
  There are notable exceptions. The Bambi DVD, which was created in 1942, is listed on Amazon for $28. In 20 years, it will be $50.
  - dsr_ 8y ago
    Well... the Bambi film came out in 1942. You can buy the Signature Edition DVD+BR for $30, but you can also buy a 2 disc special edition for $7.49, the Anniversary Edition for $15.96, and a Blu-Ray for $14.27. We haven't reached the used market, where eBay can get you a copy for $5, most of which will go to shipping it to you.
    - EvanAnderson 8y ago
      There won't be a "used market" for media in the future, because media won't be delivered on physical substrate. The publishing interests have been working to eliminate it for years. Between DRM and streaming I think they'll manage to kill used markets.
- HarryHirsch 8y ago
  Only if demand is relatively constant The demand for classic opera recordings is constant. Year after year people will buy the 1966 recording of Tristan & Isolde at the Bayreuther Festspiele with Wolfgang Windgassen singing Tristan. These are reliable moneyspinners for the record companies, you'd expect to see initiatives to extend copyright.

hedora 8y ago

Yes. A reasonable rate of real return plus inflation is 7%. 1.07^144 is 17,000. So, if the album costs $10 in 2018 dollars, it should cost $170,000 at expiration. Figuring in inflation and conservative returns give 5% per year, so 1125x markup. The album would only be $11,250 in 2018 dollars at term expiration.

pavpanchekha 8y ago

Generally you imagine that future money decreases in value (in real terms). For example, you need to at least beat inflation-protected bonds! So in order to get constant real terms over the life of a piece of art, the actual price to consume has to increase exponentially over time. But in fact we get the sense that most art drops in consumer value over time (how many times have you listened to Gangnam Style in the last month?) so exponentially increasing price would not bring linear return.

dsr_ 8y ago

Only if demand is relatively constant. Nothing is less constant than the demand for entertainment, and that's reflected in current pricing. A new blockbuster movie costs $15 in 3D, $12 in 2D. A month later it costs $6 at the second-run theater. Three months later it costs $20 on Blu-Ray for as many times as you want to watch it. A year later it's included in your HBO subscription. A year after that you can buy the disc for $10. Ten years later you can buy the whole series for $30. Forty years later it gets shown as 3AM filler on a cable network you don't pay for separately. 144 years later there are film scholars who have heard of it.

francisofascii 8y ago
There are notable exceptions. The Bambi DVD, which was created in 1942, is listed on Amazon for $28. In 20 years, it will be $50.
- dsr_ 8y ago
  Well... the Bambi film came out in 1942. You can buy the Signature Edition DVD+BR for $30, but you can also buy a 2 disc special edition for $7.49, the Anniversary Edition for $15.96, and a Blu-Ray for $14.27. We haven't reached the used market, where eBay can get you a copy for $5, most of which will go to shipping it to you.
  - EvanAnderson 8y ago
    There won't be a "used market" for media in the future, because media won't be delivered on physical substrate. The publishing interests have been working to eliminate it for years. Between DRM and streaming I think they'll manage to kill used markets.
HarryHirsch 8y ago
Only if demand is relatively constant The demand for classic opera recordings is constant. Year after year people will buy the 1966 recording of Tristan & Isolde at the Bayreuther Festspiele with Wolfgang Windgassen singing Tristan. These are reliable moneyspinners for the record companies, you'd expect to see initiatives to extend copyright.