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I don't think "we all" can agree on that, actually. It seems that more and more people are coming to the conclusion that the last 10% of full autonomy is roughl

I don't think "we all" can agree on that, actually. It seems that more and more people are coming to the conclusion that the last 10% of full autonomy is roughly equivalent to solving general intelligence—at least given our current road infrastructure and driving-related behaviors and expectations.

euyyn 8y ago
> It seems that more and more people are coming to the conclusion that What gives you that impression? It seems the opposite to me.
- mark-r 8y ago
  I've certainly come to that conclusion, although one person is not a trend. I'm in the minority among the people I talk to. I think more people see them achieving something that looked impossible, so something even more impossible doesn't seem like an obstacle.
- slfnflctd 8y ago
  People who browse threads in places where actual engineers working on this stuff post their thoughts vs. People who get all their information about self-driving cars from "journalists" The former group will pretty much unanimously tell you we are at least 10 years from a full solution, if it's even possible. Most of the latter group seem to think it's already here.
  - euyyn 8y ago
    "Solving general intelligence" isn't comparable to a 10-years deadline at all. But still, which of the few companies that work on this has their engineers expressing that 10-years figure? I can also say that I know stuff from good expert sources without mentioning any specific.
    - slfnflctd 8y ago
      I was more referring to the "last 10% of full autonomy" for self-driving cars than the solving general intelligence bit (despite the fact that GP was sort of equating the two). Guessing if/when we'll solve general intelligence is a fool's game. > "Solving general intelligence" isn't comparable to a 10-years deadline at all As I just mentioned, I don't think it's wise to put any kind of timeline on that particular milestone. > which of the few companies that work on this has their engineers expressing that 10-years figure? Well I didn't exactly go around asking every commenter who they worked for, but my gut-level statistician tells me it's been over 90% of the people on various relevant forums (including here) who seem like they know what they're talking about. All I know is that if it was as easy as a lot of folks were projecting 5 years ago, it would already be here.
aidenn0 8y ago
I think that we will make steady progress towards cars that are safer than the average driver. I think that to drive like a human using only binocular visual cues is less obvious, but a computer can process so much more information and have such a varied array of sensors that it can "cheat" its way into being better without as much intelligence. I also claim that full autonomy is not required, just sufficient autonomy that it can safely hand-off to the driver when confused (the ability to recognize an untenable situation soon enough to pull over to the side of the road is sufficient for that, beeping 2 seconds before crashing is not). I'm also unconvinced that it will be economic for companies to make self-driving cars any time in the near future though, because even if they are (for example) twice as safe as an average driver, that's a huge number of lawsuits and juries award much higher damages when the defendant is a corporation rather than a (possibly dead or permanently injured) person.

euyyn 8y ago

> It seems that more and more people are coming to the conclusion that What gives you that impression? It seems the opposite to me.

mark-r 8y ago
I've certainly come to that conclusion, although one person is not a trend. I'm in the minority among the people I talk to. I think more people see them achieving something that looked impossible, so something even more impossible doesn't seem like an obstacle.
slfnflctd 8y ago
People who browse threads in places where actual engineers working on this stuff post their thoughts vs. People who get all their information about self-driving cars from "journalists" The former group will pretty much unanimously tell you we are at least 10 years from a full solution, if it's even possible. Most of the latter group seem to think it's already here.
- euyyn 8y ago
  "Solving general intelligence" isn't comparable to a 10-years deadline at all. But still, which of the few companies that work on this has their engineers expressing that 10-years figure? I can also say that I know stuff from good expert sources without mentioning any specific.
  - slfnflctd 8y ago
    I was more referring to the "last 10% of full autonomy" for self-driving cars than the solving general intelligence bit (despite the fact that GP was sort of equating the two). Guessing if/when we'll solve general intelligence is a fool's game. > "Solving general intelligence" isn't comparable to a 10-years deadline at all As I just mentioned, I don't think it's wise to put any kind of timeline on that particular milestone. > which of the few companies that work on this has their engineers expressing that 10-years figure? Well I didn't exactly go around asking every commenter who they worked for, but my gut-level statistician tells me it's been over 90% of the people on various relevant forums (including here) who seem like they know what they're talking about. All I know is that if it was as easy as a lot of folks were projecting 5 years ago, it would already be here.

aidenn0 8y ago

I think that we will make steady progress towards cars that are safer than the average driver. I think that to drive like a human using only binocular visual cues is less obvious, but a computer can process so much more information and have such a varied array of sensors that it can "cheat" its way into being better without as much intelligence. I also claim that full autonomy is not required, just sufficient autonomy that it can safely hand-off to the driver when confused (the ability to recognize an untenable situation soon enough to pull over to the side of the road is sufficient for that, beeping 2 seconds before crashing is not). I'm also unconvinced that it will be economic for companies to make self-driving cars any time in the near future though, because even if they are (for example) twice as safe as an average driver, that's a huge number of lawsuits and juries award much higher damages when the defendant is a corporation rather than a (possibly dead or permanently injured) person.