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The previous sentences are worth quoting as well: >This model shows that rolling out just as safe or a little safer partially-autonomous vehicles by 2020 will
by tedsanders 8y ago
The previous sentences are worth quoting as well:
>This model shows that rolling out just as safe or a little safer partially-autonomous vehicles by 2020 will save 160,000 more lives over 50 years than a scenario that waits until 2025 to roll out almost perfect autonomous vehicles. Delaying the roll-out of partially-autonomous vehicles costs lives.
Sure, rolling out autonomous vehicles will save lives if you assume that they are safer than humans. But right now all the evidence points to autonomous vehicles being substantially more dangerous than humans. Waymo reports disengagements every 5,500 miles, and estimates that something like 10% disengagements would have led to a collision.
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2017 https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disen...
And taken as a whole, self-driving cars have already killed one person with only about 10 million miles driven. It would take the average human driver more than 100 million miles to kill someone.
Edit: My comment refers to safety of level 4/5 autonomy, not the current Tesla Autopilot.
The real interesting question is whether it's worth it to deploy dangerous cars, risking today's lives to help save future lives. It's not that interesting to ask whether deploying hypothetically safer cars will save lives.
- stardust83 8y agoWhy do you think only 10 million miles have been driven with Autopilot? This article says a billion+ miles have been driven with Autopilot cars: https://electrek.co/2016/11/13/tesla-autopilot-billion-miles-data-self-driving-program/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/13/tesla-autopilot-billion-miles...
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- woofyman 8y ago>The actual number of miles driven with the Autopilot active is closer to 300 million miles at this point.
- tedsanders 8y agoI'm talking about fully autonomous vehicles (level 4/5).
- rhino369 8y agoAutopilot isn’t self driving. It’s glorfied cruise control. And Tesla’s had two autopilot fatalities. And Uber had one.
- zip1234 8y agoDoes the Uber one count in the same statistical category since it was a pedestrian? I thought those were there own category?
- aidenn0 8y agoYou can plug in numbers where the cars are less safe now, but there is a steady rate of improvement in safety once the cars are on the road.