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Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

toomuchtodo 8y ago
> Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. You're technically correct, but minorities are only slightly higher (birth rate wise) than whites. "It’s official: Minority babies are the majority among the nation’s infants, but only just" http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/23/its-official-minority-babies-are-the-majority-among-the-nations-infants-but-only-just/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/23/its-official... I would argue, based on historical data, that if wealth inequality was reduced in conjunction with higher education levels of minority women, their birth rates would dip again (higher income levels and higher education obtained by women are prime drivers of lower birth rates). This discounts cultural drivers, but my hunch is those decline with each passing generation (ie catholicism and its disdain for contraception/family planning).
- newfriend 8y ago
  That article doesn't show birth rate, it shows total number of births. Considering the total population difference, that suggests minority birth rate is much higher as the parent said.
- bluedino 8y ago
  >> You're technically correct, but minorities are only slightly higher (birth rate wise) than whites. I'd bet the ones that have closer incomes to the black/hispanic population have closer birthrates
- Karishma1234 8y ago
  Birth rates work like compound interest. Even they are marginally higher it can mean they will grow at much rapid rate in next 20 years. Also what matters truly for a nation is working age population. New hires for Google in 20 years will represent far less whites. (If blacks and hispanics do not take to STEM in large numbers the total pool of candidates will be so less) Programs that apparently target wealth inequality such as subsidising fathering bastard children have actually hurt minority women as they tend to have more and more fatherless children who eventually end up in the world of abuse, drugs and crime.
tzahola 8y ago
I think the dwindling white population is actually a good thing, because it will enable people of color to assert a leading role in STEM fields!
- stevecalifornia 8y ago
  Serious question: How is this not wildly racist?
- loggedinmyphone 8y ago
  And that's what it's all about.
mywittyname 8y ago
The skills that get a person through college -- good long-term planning, ability to defer pleasure, prudent analysis -- also tend to cause people to successfully put off having children. That's really the crux of the problem. Then add to that the fact that people who do have children young are put in a comparative disadvantage to their peers.
maxk42 8y ago
I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for me. So even though I desperately want children and I can afford them and everything would probably work out fine -- here I am, aging and childless while my girlfriend nears infertility because I can't justify the math to myself.
- spookthesunset 8y ago
  Sounds more like you have a relationship problem than a financial problem.... if you are worried about things going south between you and your partner you have bigger issues to work out than having kids. Also, you'd be insane not to get married before having kids. It's a legal contract between you and your partner that kinda comes in handy if you get disabled, die, etc...
  - d1zzy 8y ago
    Huh? Not worrying about something that could go wrong is just blissful ignorance. It's a very valid concern that should be accounted for in your big life decisions, you can't just hope for everything to go well because it almost never does so you should consider the consequences when it doesn't and make an informed decision if the costs/risk for that to happen are worth the hassle. I've been together with my wife for almost 20 years now and I still make decisions where I consider "what would happen if my partner would die/leave me/etc". And one good thing of being in a long relationship with someone is that these things can be discussed transparently among ourselves, otherwise you wouldn't be able to discuss simple issues like life insurance. And yes, getting married gives implicit legal protections and a lot of those legal protections are all about "what would happen if" scenarios...
- baq 8y ago
  You only have one life. Not having children means not living it fully (though it's mighty convenient). All the money in the world won't change that and it won't matter when you're gone anyway.
panic 8y ago
> Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields. How would the color of someone's skin affect their skills in these fields?
- gowld 8y ago
  The owners of leading tech companies might not want to hire non-whites?
- a_tractor 8y ago
  This is not really an answer to your question, but you do know that race is more than just the color of someone's skin, right?
rubicon33 8y ago
I'm not sure that low income Hispanic and Black birth rates says anything about their ability to afford those children. In other words, just because they're having more children doesn't mean it's a financially wise decision, or even one they can technically afford. Many middle class white and asian families are putting off children because of the cost of living. Just to make a decent 2-earner income, you need both to have at least a college degree. After graduating college and landing a job you're still making historically low wages relative to the cost of living. Take those historically low wages and try and buy a house. Home ownership (a staple milestone for young families) is still wildly unaffordable in most healthy economic zones. When home ownership is pushed later, and later in life, couples don't feel "settled" and ready to build a family.
- gowld 8y ago
  How can you say whether having children is "financially wise"? Accumulating money is not an end in itself. How much is a child worth? If you don't have children, the long-term ROI of your family. Wealthy people spend exorbitant sums on their lives, while poorer people raise more children with less money. Which financially wiser?
sctb 8y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17094708 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17094708 and marked it off-topic. Please don't start generic racewars here.

toomuchtodo 8y ago

> Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. You're technically correct, but minorities are only slightly higher (birth rate wise) than whites. "It’s official: Minority babies are the majority among the nation’s infants, but only just" http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/23/its-official-minority-babies-are-the-majority-among-the-nations-infants-but-only-just/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/23/its-official... I would argue, based on historical data, that if wealth inequality was reduced in conjunction with higher education levels of minority women, their birth rates would dip again (higher income levels and higher education obtained by women are prime drivers of lower birth rates). This discounts cultural drivers, but my hunch is those decline with each passing generation (ie catholicism and its disdain for contraception/family planning).

newfriend 8y ago
That article doesn't show birth rate, it shows total number of births. Considering the total population difference, that suggests minority birth rate is much higher as the parent said.
bluedino 8y ago
>> You're technically correct, but minorities are only slightly higher (birth rate wise) than whites. I'd bet the ones that have closer incomes to the black/hispanic population have closer birthrates
Karishma1234 8y ago
Birth rates work like compound interest. Even they are marginally higher it can mean they will grow at much rapid rate in next 20 years. Also what matters truly for a nation is working age population. New hires for Google in 20 years will represent far less whites. (If blacks and hispanics do not take to STEM in large numbers the total pool of candidates will be so less) Programs that apparently target wealth inequality such as subsidising fathering bastard children have actually hurt minority women as they tend to have more and more fatherless children who eventually end up in the world of abuse, drugs and crime.

tzahola 8y ago

I think the dwindling white population is actually a good thing, because it will enable people of color to assert a leading role in STEM fields!

stevecalifornia 8y ago
Serious question: How is this not wildly racist?
loggedinmyphone 8y ago
And that's what it's all about.

mywittyname 8y ago

The skills that get a person through college -- good long-term planning, ability to defer pleasure, prudent analysis -- also tend to cause people to successfully put off having children. That's really the crux of the problem. Then add to that the fact that people who do have children young are put in a comparative disadvantage to their peers.

maxk42 8y ago

I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for me. So even though I desperately want children and I can afford them and everything would probably work out fine -- here I am, aging and childless while my girlfriend nears infertility because I can't justify the math to myself.

spookthesunset 8y ago
Sounds more like you have a relationship problem than a financial problem.... if you are worried about things going south between you and your partner you have bigger issues to work out than having kids. Also, you'd be insane not to get married before having kids. It's a legal contract between you and your partner that kinda comes in handy if you get disabled, die, etc...
- d1zzy 8y ago
  Huh? Not worrying about something that could go wrong is just blissful ignorance. It's a very valid concern that should be accounted for in your big life decisions, you can't just hope for everything to go well because it almost never does so you should consider the consequences when it doesn't and make an informed decision if the costs/risk for that to happen are worth the hassle. I've been together with my wife for almost 20 years now and I still make decisions where I consider "what would happen if my partner would die/leave me/etc". And one good thing of being in a long relationship with someone is that these things can be discussed transparently among ourselves, otherwise you wouldn't be able to discuss simple issues like life insurance. And yes, getting married gives implicit legal protections and a lot of those legal protections are all about "what would happen if" scenarios...
baq 8y ago
You only have one life. Not having children means not living it fully (though it's mighty convenient). All the money in the world won't change that and it won't matter when you're gone anyway.

panic 8y ago

> Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields. How would the color of someone's skin affect their skills in these fields?

gowld 8y ago
The owners of leading tech companies might not want to hire non-whites?
a_tractor 8y ago
This is not really an answer to your question, but you do know that race is more than just the color of someone's skin, right?

rubicon33 8y ago

I'm not sure that low income Hispanic and Black birth rates says anything about their ability to afford those children. In other words, just because they're having more children doesn't mean it's a financially wise decision, or even one they can technically afford. Many middle class white and asian families are putting off children because of the cost of living. Just to make a decent 2-earner income, you need both to have at least a college degree. After graduating college and landing a job you're still making historically low wages relative to the cost of living. Take those historically low wages and try and buy a house. Home ownership (a staple milestone for young families) is still wildly unaffordable in most healthy economic zones. When home ownership is pushed later, and later in life, couples don't feel "settled" and ready to build a family.

gowld 8y ago
How can you say whether having children is "financially wise"? Accumulating money is not an end in itself. How much is a child worth? If you don't have children, the long-term ROI of your family. Wealthy people spend exorbitant sums on their lives, while poorer people raise more children with less money. Which financially wiser?

sctb 8y ago

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17094708 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17094708 and marked it off-topic. Please don't start generic racewars here.