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The question is where do people in their 20-40s live and also how fast is housing prices growing in those areas. Yes you might live in an area that has houses b

The question is where do people in their 20-40s live and also how fast is housing prices growing in those areas. Yes you might live in an area that has houses below 300K but if incomes are low and the annualized growth of house prices is 2-3x the inflation rate you got a problem. It's not just a SF or NYC problem. Look at what is happening in Denver, Austin, and Pittsburgh. All these cities are seeing dramatic housing price increases.

dionidium 8y ago
> but if incomes are low For most people, housing swallows every bit of the income difference and then some. The difference between making $90k a year and, say, $60k a year doesn't look so bad when the housing costs are 5-10x cheaper. If your goal is to own a detached home, then the costs are so disparate that most people who could buy a house in the Midwest tomorrow won't earn enough to own such a place on the coasts in their lifetime.
dsfyu404ed 8y ago
>All these cities are seeing dramatic housing price increases. Because people from SF and NYC are saying "F it, I'm cashing out while I'm winning" and moving to those places.
tptacek 8y ago
Every time this discussion comes up, someone points out Austin as if it somehow validates the idea that housing is expensive everywhere. But, no. Austin is expensive, but very few people live there. That's why I provided the statistic. Forget individual cities and look at the macro number: more than eighty percent of urban Americans live in affordable metro areas. I don't know where you're coming from with Pittsburgh, where the average home price was $125,000 in 2017. If somebody wants to make the argument that housing prices are a calamitous problem for tech industry employees, that will be supportable. But most Americans don't work for the tech industry (I would not be surprised if most programmers don't work in the tech industry).
- hunter23 8y ago
  > more than eighty percent of urban Americans live in affordable metro areas. I'm sorry but you didn't prove that. You proved that 80% of Americans live near houses that are under 300k. To prove that 80% of Americans aren't suffering from housing issues you would have to show that 80% of American households earn an income such that with 25% of that income they can afford a reasonable home. I don't know the answer to that. I perfectly understand that insane housing prices are a local Bay Area issue. What I'm unsure of is what the case is for most of Americans. The reason I say this is because my high school friends set (of whom 0% are engineers and 0% are in Bay Area), a significant portion (>30%) are struggling with housing related issues. I know that's anecdotal, but I'm just asking if anyone has a real data point to indicate if the housing issue is national or not. Citing that most of America has low house prices does not answer that question. For context I grew up in an area where a 100K house would be considered luxurious so I am perfectly aware of how low housing prices are in America compared to Bay Area. That area also has lost tons of jobs so in order to support themselves, the younger generation has had to move to higher COL cities where there are jobs available (and where they can't afford housing). If you have any references that show that 80% of the population can easily afford local housing then I would gladly agree with your assertion that the housing issue isn't national.
  - tptacek 8y ago
    Go look at house price to income ratio rankings. They broadly track house prices, which is to say, Chicago --- which does not have a housing price crisis --- appears in the same place on both rankings, and San Jose appears on the top of both lists.
JamesBarney 8y ago
I live in Houston, with 2.3 million other people. The most expensive area of town is maybe 2$ a sqft to rent. I live 10 minutes from downtown in a triplex, where the other two units(I own) rent out for 1,900 a month, and my wife and I get 1,400 sqft. I bought it for 200,000.(beautiful neighborhood built around 1910,) And it's very easy to make 140,000+ here as a developer. It's hard to make google/netflix 300k-400k, but you probably don't need to be as good either.

dionidium 8y ago

> but if incomes are low For most people, housing swallows every bit of the income difference and then some. The difference between making $90k a year and, say, $60k a year doesn't look so bad when the housing costs are 5-10x cheaper. If your goal is to own a detached home, then the costs are so disparate that most people who could buy a house in the Midwest tomorrow won't earn enough to own such a place on the coasts in their lifetime.

dsfyu404ed 8y ago

>All these cities are seeing dramatic housing price increases. Because people from SF and NYC are saying "F it, I'm cashing out while I'm winning" and moving to those places.

tptacek 8y ago

Every time this discussion comes up, someone points out Austin as if it somehow validates the idea that housing is expensive everywhere. But, no. Austin is expensive, but very few people live there. That's why I provided the statistic. Forget individual cities and look at the macro number: more than eighty percent of urban Americans live in affordable metro areas. I don't know where you're coming from with Pittsburgh, where the average home price was $125,000 in 2017. If somebody wants to make the argument that housing prices are a calamitous problem for tech industry employees, that will be supportable. But most Americans don't work for the tech industry (I would not be surprised if most programmers don't work in the tech industry).

hunter23 8y ago
> more than eighty percent of urban Americans live in affordable metro areas. I'm sorry but you didn't prove that. You proved that 80% of Americans live near houses that are under 300k. To prove that 80% of Americans aren't suffering from housing issues you would have to show that 80% of American households earn an income such that with 25% of that income they can afford a reasonable home. I don't know the answer to that. I perfectly understand that insane housing prices are a local Bay Area issue. What I'm unsure of is what the case is for most of Americans. The reason I say this is because my high school friends set (of whom 0% are engineers and 0% are in Bay Area), a significant portion (>30%) are struggling with housing related issues. I know that's anecdotal, but I'm just asking if anyone has a real data point to indicate if the housing issue is national or not. Citing that most of America has low house prices does not answer that question. For context I grew up in an area where a 100K house would be considered luxurious so I am perfectly aware of how low housing prices are in America compared to Bay Area. That area also has lost tons of jobs so in order to support themselves, the younger generation has had to move to higher COL cities where there are jobs available (and where they can't afford housing). If you have any references that show that 80% of the population can easily afford local housing then I would gladly agree with your assertion that the housing issue isn't national.
- tptacek 8y ago
  Go look at house price to income ratio rankings. They broadly track house prices, which is to say, Chicago --- which does not have a housing price crisis --- appears in the same place on both rankings, and San Jose appears on the top of both lists.

JamesBarney 8y ago

I live in Houston, with 2.3 million other people. The most expensive area of town is maybe 2$ a sqft to rent. I live 10 minutes from downtown in a triplex, where the other two units(I own) rent out for 1,900 a month, and my wife and I get 1,400 sqft. I bought it for 200,000.(beautiful neighborhood built around 1910,) And it's very easy to make 140,000+ here as a developer. It's hard to make google/netflix 300k-400k, but you probably don't need to be as good either.