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There is close to 0 percentage this company survives. The stock has fallen 40% each day for past few days. AMC head says they don't discount tickets and average

There is close to 0 percentage this company survives. The stock has fallen 40% each day for past few days. AMC head says they don't discount tickets and average moviepass holder watches 3 movies a month paying average $12 per ticket. They burn 21M a month and less than that in the bank. Plus they took money from many consumers for annual passes which will get them sued for fraud.

jack9 8y ago
Now they can't watch more than 4 (select) movies per month and no repeat viewings. Moviepass hasn't changed anything because people generally are being termed out of the original breakneck deals.
- laken 8y ago
  Moviepass brought back the unlimited plan 2 weeks ago.
- teej 8y ago
  The one movie a day subscription plan is back as of this month.
teej 8y ago
I’m not sure where you came up with 3/month @ $12 each. The actual numbers could be wildly different, I don’t think it’s safe to speculate so broadly. Also, while AMC is large, they aren’t the only game in town. They only control ~8k of the 40k screens in the US. You can bet that if moviepass is able to drive demand away from AMC they will cave eventually.
- aslkdjaslkdj 8y ago
  It's a quote from the CEO of AMC from their recent investor call. "Fast forward to today, in March and April, MoviePass paid AMC $12.02 per ticket on hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of tickets each month, hundreds of thousands of their subscribers came through AMC theaters to enjoy our product. They did so at a frequency of 2.62 times in March and 2.75 times in April. Now, I took the calculator out and I multiplied 2.75 times $12.02, and I got to a number that was considerably larger than 995. So just as we were hearing that -- the MoviePass price point was unsustainable in August, we have the same questions today. And apparently we’re not alone in that view. Our doubts are now shared and articulated by MoviePass's orders." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170917-amc-entertainment-holdings-amc-ceo-adam-aron-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170917-amc-entertainment-h...
charlesdm 8y ago
Well, the stock sure seems valued like that. I haven't done much research into the numbers (only popped up on my radar a while ago) but the CEO said they have access to $300m worth of capital (i.e. debt) + the service would be profitable at 5m users. Burn was supposedly reduced by 30% since introducing that recent change. Which would give them approx. 15-20 months to execute their strategy in the best case. On the off chance this one does work out, this will likely be a 100 bagger.
- imustbeevil 8y ago
  > On the off chance this one does work out, this will likely be a 100 bagger. This company will likely go bankrupt. On the off chance it doesn't go bankrupt it will likely not increase in value 10,000%. Movie theaters already have access to what movies people are seeing. They also have control over the ticket serving infrastructure. Moviepass literally exists because movie theaters don't want to waste their own money finding a profitable balance for subscriptions. So they'll let Moviepass burn 300 million validating the idea. Worst case scenario, it's a bad idea and movie theaters lose nothing, best case scenario its a good idea and they offer the service themselves.

jack9 8y ago

Now they can't watch more than 4 (select) movies per month and no repeat viewings. Moviepass hasn't changed anything because people generally are being termed out of the original breakneck deals.

laken 8y ago
Moviepass brought back the unlimited plan 2 weeks ago.
teej 8y ago
The one movie a day subscription plan is back as of this month.

teej 8y ago

I’m not sure where you came up with 3/month @ $12 each. The actual numbers could be wildly different, I don’t think it’s safe to speculate so broadly. Also, while AMC is large, they aren’t the only game in town. They only control ~8k of the 40k screens in the US. You can bet that if moviepass is able to drive demand away from AMC they will cave eventually.

aslkdjaslkdj 8y ago
It's a quote from the CEO of AMC from their recent investor call. "Fast forward to today, in March and April, MoviePass paid AMC $12.02 per ticket on hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of tickets each month, hundreds of thousands of their subscribers came through AMC theaters to enjoy our product. They did so at a frequency of 2.62 times in March and 2.75 times in April. Now, I took the calculator out and I multiplied 2.75 times $12.02, and I got to a number that was considerably larger than 995. So just as we were hearing that -- the MoviePass price point was unsustainable in August, we have the same questions today. And apparently we’re not alone in that view. Our doubts are now shared and articulated by MoviePass's orders." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170917-amc-entertainment-holdings-amc-ceo-adam-aron-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170917-amc-entertainment-h...

charlesdm 8y ago

Well, the stock sure seems valued like that. I haven't done much research into the numbers (only popped up on my radar a while ago) but the CEO said they have access to $300m worth of capital (i.e. debt) + the service would be profitable at 5m users. Burn was supposedly reduced by 30% since introducing that recent change. Which would give them approx. 15-20 months to execute their strategy in the best case. On the off chance this one does work out, this will likely be a 100 bagger.

imustbeevil 8y ago
> On the off chance this one does work out, this will likely be a 100 bagger. This company will likely go bankrupt. On the off chance it doesn't go bankrupt it will likely not increase in value 10,000%. Movie theaters already have access to what movies people are seeing. They also have control over the ticket serving infrastructure. Moviepass literally exists because movie theaters don't want to waste their own money finding a profitable balance for subscriptions. So they'll let Moviepass burn 300 million validating the idea. Worst case scenario, it's a bad idea and movie theaters lose nothing, best case scenario its a good idea and they offer the service themselves.