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I really dislike when people focus on luck this much. If you have in your mind the notion that luck is real and that it affects the outcome of your efforts in a

I really dislike when people focus on luck this much. If you have in your mind the notion that luck is real and that it affects the outcome of your efforts in any way, sooner or later (and often times without really noticing that you're doing it) you will use that notion to excuse your failures and to explain away other people's successes, and that will prevent you from achieving your goals as fast as you would have otherwise. While it is useful to understand the nature of how markets operate and the role of luck in them, I find that worrying too much about this is harmful for my personal development and that taking a stance that is something like "luck doesn't exist" is more useful. http://ssygen.com/posts/luck http://ssygen.com/posts/luck

affinehat 8y ago
You can't lump together all forms of luck into a single "objectively true, pragmatically false" category without considering the magnitude of impact luck has on what you intend to do. In the extreme, playing the lottery is almost entirely luck, and it's very much pragmatic to believe that it is so. It's not a binary choice between 0% luck / 100% power, and 100% luck / 0% power. There's a whole continuum in between, and the exact luck/power breakdown for any given action is a matter of objective fact. Where we run into trouble is when our perception of the breakdown does not match the objective reality, and we waste our time on impossible tasks or don't bother to try tasks that could have benefited us. And the breakdown of luck/power is objectively skewed in favor of power for those who are white, and skewed in favor of luck for those who are minorities. So while white privilege and white supremacy might both be wrong, they are certainly not wrong to the same degree. While privilege is a view closer to the objective reality and is thus probably overall beneficial as long as you don't take it too far. Likewise for feminism/incel.
- adnzzzzZ 8y ago
  As I've stated in the article, it's about the mindset you take and not what is objectively true. You're not helping minorities by pointing out that their success in life will be mostly due to luck, you're just giving them excuses to not try harder.
  - jonnybgood 8y ago
    > You're not helping minorities by pointing out that their success in life will be mostly due to luck, you're just giving them excuses to not try harder. You really think they’re not trying hard enough? What is trying hard to you? I don’t know if you’re American but it’s not unusual for black Americans to work twice as hard as their white counterparts to receive equal recognition, or success.
    - adnzzzzZ 8y ago
      There are minority groups in America that do well despite all their minority status, like asians. This happens because they have the correct mindset with which to approach the world. Everything I see from other minority groups in America, especially blacks, is that they have the main mindset of blaming others instead of themselves for their misfortunes. This kind of mindset won't really get you anywhere in life. I'm from Brazil if that matters.
      - TheCoelacanth 8y ago
        What evidence do you have that "mindset" is the cause of the difference and not simple selection bias? Black Americans are mostly native born. Asian Americans are mostly immigrants or just one or two generations removed from immigrants. Immigrants from Asia can pretty much only get a visa through some kind of work visa. That means they are pre-selected for having a highly-demanded skill set before they can even enter the country. It also takes decades for them to qualify for permanent residence, so they need to be employed in that field for the entire time. It is almost guaranteed that these people will be financially successful because someone who is employed for decades in a field that can qualify for one of these visas will be financially successful. Anyone who isn't will not legally be allowed in the country. US law pretty much guarantees that Asians on average will be more financially successful than average because they are much more likely to be here on a visa that requires financial success.
        adnzzzzZ 8y ago
        Doesn't immigration law in America apply equally to immigrants from everywhere? Why would Asians require one set of rules while Hispanics require another? And if they do play by the same rules then that still doesn't explain the success of Asians over other immigration heavy groups like Hispanics. I think you can't discount the fact that Asians simply have a better mindset that focuses on hard work more than other groups, which explains at least part of their success. And it's really not a surprise to think that if you value hard work and you act on that value by working hard, you will be rewarded. There's no need to make up excuses by blaming systemic racism or any other sort of external influence that doesn't play as much of a role in your life as your own effort will.
newfoundglory 8y ago
> I find that worrying too much about this is harmful for my personal development and that taking a stance that is something like "luck doesn't exist" is more useful. That may be true, but what’s the effect on your understanding of other people, society, and how the world works? Is that not important to your personal development?
shub 8y ago
What do you mean by luck? Circumstances beyond your control? That's what it sounds like to me but I also think you can't possibly mean that. It's trivially false.
guntars 8y ago
From the article you posted: > And so the more general formulation of "luck isn't real" would be something like "you shouldn't blame external factors for your failures". Well, sure, but luck is still real. How can knowing a true fact not be useful? > Ideas that empower you should be accepted, ideas that remove power away from you should be rejected. How about we don’t accept/reject ideas based on how they make us feel but rather based on if they’re true or not. I understand that it is effective, but it will ultimately cause you to reject something vital.
- adnzzzzZ 8y ago
  There are things that are true that don't lead to good results. A nihilist atheist who sees no meaning in life is probably objectively correct is his assessment of the world, but if he ends up killing himself because of it then that true fact wasn't really useful, was it? There are tons of other situations that are similar and I think that luck is one of them.
  - guntars 8y ago
    It’s not the fault of the thing that it lead to bad results. I understand how it works. 1) What you think affects how you feel. 2) How you feel affects your life, how hard you try and how you deal with setbacks. The article that you linked to about empowerment talks about empowering others by focusing on the equally objectively true narratives where the others have a say in the outcome. But I think that only applies to when you’re writing a comment or a blog post and you don’t have infinite time to talk about everything and if you have to focus, might as well be on something constructive. If we’re talking about living with yourself, then I think there’s plenty of time to consider all of the perspectives. The nihilist can come to terms that there is no meaning in life provided for him and create his own.
    - adnzzzzZ 8y ago
      >If we’re talking about living with yourself, then I think there’s plenty of time to consider all of the perspectives. The nihilist can come to terms that there is no meaning in life provided for him and create his own. The main problem with adopting certain mindsets is that they have the ability to change the way you filter the world without you realizing it. So even though you can find a way to live with that mindset, if it's a mindset that focuses on things you have no control over, it will be less useful than another mindset that focuses solely on things you do have control over. That's the main point I was trying to get across.

affinehat 8y ago

You can't lump together all forms of luck into a single "objectively true, pragmatically false" category without considering the magnitude of impact luck has on what you intend to do. In the extreme, playing the lottery is almost entirely luck, and it's very much pragmatic to believe that it is so. It's not a binary choice between 0% luck / 100% power, and 100% luck / 0% power. There's a whole continuum in between, and the exact luck/power breakdown for any given action is a matter of objective fact. Where we run into trouble is when our perception of the breakdown does not match the objective reality, and we waste our time on impossible tasks or don't bother to try tasks that could have benefited us. And the breakdown of luck/power is objectively skewed in favor of power for those who are white, and skewed in favor of luck for those who are minorities. So while white privilege and white supremacy might both be wrong, they are certainly not wrong to the same degree. While privilege is a view closer to the objective reality and is thus probably overall beneficial as long as you don't take it too far. Likewise for feminism/incel.

adnzzzzZ 8y ago
As I've stated in the article, it's about the mindset you take and not what is objectively true. You're not helping minorities by pointing out that their success in life will be mostly due to luck, you're just giving them excuses to not try harder.
- jonnybgood 8y ago
  > You're not helping minorities by pointing out that their success in life will be mostly due to luck, you're just giving them excuses to not try harder. You really think they’re not trying hard enough? What is trying hard to you? I don’t know if you’re American but it’s not unusual for black Americans to work twice as hard as their white counterparts to receive equal recognition, or success.
  - adnzzzzZ 8y ago
    There are minority groups in America that do well despite all their minority status, like asians. This happens because they have the correct mindset with which to approach the world. Everything I see from other minority groups in America, especially blacks, is that they have the main mindset of blaming others instead of themselves for their misfortunes. This kind of mindset won't really get you anywhere in life. I'm from Brazil if that matters.
    - TheCoelacanth 8y ago
      What evidence do you have that "mindset" is the cause of the difference and not simple selection bias? Black Americans are mostly native born. Asian Americans are mostly immigrants or just one or two generations removed from immigrants. Immigrants from Asia can pretty much only get a visa through some kind of work visa. That means they are pre-selected for having a highly-demanded skill set before they can even enter the country. It also takes decades for them to qualify for permanent residence, so they need to be employed in that field for the entire time. It is almost guaranteed that these people will be financially successful because someone who is employed for decades in a field that can qualify for one of these visas will be financially successful. Anyone who isn't will not legally be allowed in the country. US law pretty much guarantees that Asians on average will be more financially successful than average because they are much more likely to be here on a visa that requires financial success.
      - adnzzzzZ 8y ago
        Doesn't immigration law in America apply equally to immigrants from everywhere? Why would Asians require one set of rules while Hispanics require another? And if they do play by the same rules then that still doesn't explain the success of Asians over other immigration heavy groups like Hispanics. I think you can't discount the fact that Asians simply have a better mindset that focuses on hard work more than other groups, which explains at least part of their success. And it's really not a surprise to think that if you value hard work and you act on that value by working hard, you will be rewarded. There's no need to make up excuses by blaming systemic racism or any other sort of external influence that doesn't play as much of a role in your life as your own effort will.

newfoundglory 8y ago

> I find that worrying too much about this is harmful for my personal development and that taking a stance that is something like "luck doesn't exist" is more useful. That may be true, but what’s the effect on your understanding of other people, society, and how the world works? Is that not important to your personal development?

shub 8y ago

What do you mean by luck? Circumstances beyond your control? That's what it sounds like to me but I also think you can't possibly mean that. It's trivially false.

guntars 8y ago

From the article you posted: > And so the more general formulation of "luck isn't real" would be something like "you shouldn't blame external factors for your failures". Well, sure, but luck is still real. How can knowing a true fact not be useful? > Ideas that empower you should be accepted, ideas that remove power away from you should be rejected. How about we don’t accept/reject ideas based on how they make us feel but rather based on if they’re true or not. I understand that it is effective, but it will ultimately cause you to reject something vital.

adnzzzzZ 8y ago
There are things that are true that don't lead to good results. A nihilist atheist who sees no meaning in life is probably objectively correct is his assessment of the world, but if he ends up killing himself because of it then that true fact wasn't really useful, was it? There are tons of other situations that are similar and I think that luck is one of them.
- guntars 8y ago
  It’s not the fault of the thing that it lead to bad results. I understand how it works. 1) What you think affects how you feel. 2) How you feel affects your life, how hard you try and how you deal with setbacks. The article that you linked to about empowerment talks about empowering others by focusing on the equally objectively true narratives where the others have a say in the outcome. But I think that only applies to when you’re writing a comment or a blog post and you don’t have infinite time to talk about everything and if you have to focus, might as well be on something constructive. If we’re talking about living with yourself, then I think there’s plenty of time to consider all of the perspectives. The nihilist can come to terms that there is no meaning in life provided for him and create his own.
  - adnzzzzZ 8y ago
    >If we’re talking about living with yourself, then I think there’s plenty of time to consider all of the perspectives. The nihilist can come to terms that there is no meaning in life provided for him and create his own. The main problem with adopting certain mindsets is that they have the ability to change the way you filter the world without you realizing it. So even though you can find a way to live with that mindset, if it's a mindset that focuses on things you have no control over, it will be less useful than another mindset that focuses solely on things you do have control over. That's the main point I was trying to get across.