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Every successful industrialized nation after the first one (the UK) started by copying the products of other nations. Germany was a notable early case of this.

Every successful industrialized nation after the first one (the UK) started by copying the products of other nations. Germany was a notable early case of this. So was Japan. China did the same thing, and now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China. They are already there in software -- WeChat/WePay is a really big deal and it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies. I suspect we will soon see successful Chinese innovations in AI, semiconductors, and automobiles.

dmix 9y ago
> now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it. People love to over-simplify economics and make the big assumption that the historical progress seen in the west in previous eras is a repeatable system on a simple arc trajectory of advancement. But I personally believe it is as much a product of the local (work) culture, politics, and economic systems... not simply just a side-effect of the creation of a middle class. Just look at Japan. They had a great period of innovation within a particular period of chaos where the old cultural rules weren't being imposed and whole new industries were developed. Which later became crippled by a variety of forces, including most notably culture and how 'elders'/successful companies are treated like gods, while upstarts became marginalized as the larger firms became politically entrenched. Now that the systems are in place the creative class has largely been stamped out. That had little to do with Japan's particular position on some growth model but a variety of distinct local forces. This type of thing is also not just a product of industry but also academically, which we've also seen a lack of larger sweeping innovations coming out of China, instead mostly just narrower progress within existing western thought. It's entirely possible that what China is best at is these type of things, mastering these individual existing categories, optimizing them, and working harder than anyone else at them. Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones. That too seems to be a result of cultural and economic system... not simply their position within some predicable growth model which worked in the west.
- OrganicMSG 9y ago
  >Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones. Go buy a copy of the Three-Body trilogy by Liu Cixin.
- hyperpallium 9y ago
  It may be simplistic, but political freedom may influence technological and scientific freedom, necessary for innovation. If you routinely self-censor in one area, it transfers. For this reason, I think we'll see some relaxation of control in China, as there has been previously. But I guess the real challenge is having a culture of risk tolerance, and investment infrastructure etc to support it.
  - twblalock 9y ago
    Unfortunately it seems the Chinese government has figured out how to get high growth, investment, and scientific/technological progress without increasing political freedoms. I'd like to be wrong about that, but it seems pretty clear that it's the case. I used to think that as more Chinese people entered the middle class, they would demand more political rights. It's generally the bourgeoisie that does this -- they aren't poor anymore and they want respect, they resent being looked down on and the monopoly on political power held by the entrenched aristocracy (which in China would be the powerful families in the party), and so on. But that hasn't happened as far as I can tell. Maybe it's because the people in a position to successfully demand political reform aren't staying in China.
    - lamarpye 9y ago
      Not sure if that is the case. If you create IP, is the Chinese government going to defend your ownership of it? I would think smart people and people who invest in smart people are going to create things in systems where you are rewarded for it.
      - hyperpallium 9y ago
home_boi 9y ago
> it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies Does it? I think American payment systems are winning outside of China/USA. Of course it won the Chinese market because China makes it extremely difficult for foreign tech companies to compete.

dmix 9y ago

> now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it. People love to over-simplify economics and make the big assumption that the historical progress seen in the west in previous eras is a repeatable system on a simple arc trajectory of advancement. But I personally believe it is as much a product of the local (work) culture, politics, and economic systems... not simply just a side-effect of the creation of a middle class. Just look at Japan. They had a great period of innovation within a particular period of chaos where the old cultural rules weren't being imposed and whole new industries were developed. Which later became crippled by a variety of forces, including most notably culture and how 'elders'/successful companies are treated like gods, while upstarts became marginalized as the larger firms became politically entrenched. Now that the systems are in place the creative class has largely been stamped out. That had little to do with Japan's particular position on some growth model but a variety of distinct local forces. This type of thing is also not just a product of industry but also academically, which we've also seen a lack of larger sweeping innovations coming out of China, instead mostly just narrower progress within existing western thought. It's entirely possible that what China is best at is these type of things, mastering these individual existing categories, optimizing them, and working harder than anyone else at them. Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones. That too seems to be a result of cultural and economic system... not simply their position within some predicable growth model which worked in the west.

OrganicMSG 9y ago
>Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones. Go buy a copy of the Three-Body trilogy by Liu Cixin.
hyperpallium 9y ago
It may be simplistic, but political freedom may influence technological and scientific freedom, necessary for innovation. If you routinely self-censor in one area, it transfers. For this reason, I think we'll see some relaxation of control in China, as there has been previously. But I guess the real challenge is having a culture of risk tolerance, and investment infrastructure etc to support it.
- twblalock 9y ago
  Unfortunately it seems the Chinese government has figured out how to get high growth, investment, and scientific/technological progress without increasing political freedoms. I'd like to be wrong about that, but it seems pretty clear that it's the case. I used to think that as more Chinese people entered the middle class, they would demand more political rights. It's generally the bourgeoisie that does this -- they aren't poor anymore and they want respect, they resent being looked down on and the monopoly on political power held by the entrenched aristocracy (which in China would be the powerful families in the party), and so on. But that hasn't happened as far as I can tell. Maybe it's because the people in a position to successfully demand political reform aren't staying in China.
  - lamarpye 9y ago
    Not sure if that is the case. If you create IP, is the Chinese government going to defend your ownership of it? I would think smart people and people who invest in smart people are going to create things in systems where you are rewarded for it.
    - hyperpallium 9y ago

home_boi 9y ago

> it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies Does it? I think American payment systems are winning outside of China/USA. Of course it won the Chinese market because China makes it extremely difficult for foreign tech companies to compete.