5 ms·

Long term, this will backfire on the US. China will probably just develop more stuff locally, further reducing US influence.

threeseed 8y ago
This makes no sense. China was always going to develop more stuff locally and the US influence in the IT space was always going to decline. It's just a fact when you have a country as big as China rising in prominence and strength you will see declines elsewhere. But when it comes to consumer products the US still has an innate understanding of how to build products for the world. And China may be great at building and duplicating but they haven't yet demonstrated how to do this from scratch.
- pault 8y ago
  They can learn how to manufacture high quality products for the global market easier than the US can grow a billion people. Food for thought.
  - vl 8y ago
    US can grow to a billion+ people easily, it's just standard of living would be abysmal.
    - beamatronic 8y ago
      It just occurred to me that under extreme circumstances the US could force a worldwide brain drain overnight by relaxing immigration standards to allow anyone with a college degree on a fast track to a green card.
      - khuey 8y ago
        If our political system were run by cold-blooded technocrats that would be an interesting way of competing with China.
- oulu2006 8y ago
  I don't know why you're being down voted. It's a forgone conclusion that China was always going to push to accelerate their local semi-conductor industry irrespective of what happened to ZTE or not. Not enforcing violations of US sanctions (and the subsequent plea agreement) would have just shown China that you can piss all over any deals made with the US commerce department (further reducing their respect) -- it would not have detracted in the slightest from China's mandate to replace their dependency on foreign technology at all!
- twblalock 8y ago
  Every successful industrialized nation after the first one (the UK) started by copying the products of other nations. Germany was a notable early case of this. So was Japan. China did the same thing, and now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China. They are already there in software -- WeChat/WePay is a really big deal and it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies. I suspect we will soon see successful Chinese innovations in AI, semiconductors, and automobiles.
  - dmix 8y ago
    > now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it. People love to over-simplify economics and make the big assumption that the historical progress seen in the west in previous eras is a repeatable system on a simple arc trajectory of advancement. But I personally believe it is as much a product of the local (work) culture, politics, and economic systems... not simply just a side-effect of the creation of a middle class. Just look at Japan. They had a great period of innovation within a particular period of chaos where the old cultural rules weren't being imposed and whole new industries were developed. Which later became crippled by a variety of forces, including most notably culture and how 'elders'/successful companies are treated like gods, while upstarts became marginalized as the larger firms became politically entrenched. Now that the systems are in place the creative class has largely been stamped out. That had little to do with Japan's particular position on some growth model but a variety of distinct local forces. This type of thing is also not just a product of industry but also academically, which we've also seen a lack of larger sweeping innovations coming out of China, instead mostly just narrower progress within existing western thought. It's entirely possible that what China is best at is these type of things, mastering these individual existing categories, optimizing them, and working harder than anyone else at them. Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones. That too seems to be a result of cultural and economic system... not simply their position within some predicable growth model which worked in the west.
    - OrganicMSG 8y ago
Arbalest 8y ago
Not probably, explicitly. That's basically the thrust of Made in China 2025.
Karishma1234 8y ago
China has a single minded focus on that. What US does is going to be irrelevant in that sense.
- jjoonathan 8y ago
  Yep, this isn't a card we can keep up our sleeve until it's useful. We play it now, in the near future, or never.
- RachelF 8y ago
  Very true. There is a very good article[1] in The Economist about this. Their conclusion: "These are all things that China is working on. America’s use of its new weapons simultaneously demonstrates its power and will hasten its relative decline." [1]https://www.economist.com/news/business/21741556-there-are-also-big-downsides-actions-against-rusal-and-zte-zap-american-officials https://www.economist.com/news/business/21741556-there-are-a...

threeseed 8y ago

This makes no sense. China was always going to develop more stuff locally and the US influence in the IT space was always going to decline. It's just a fact when you have a country as big as China rising in prominence and strength you will see declines elsewhere. But when it comes to consumer products the US still has an innate understanding of how to build products for the world. And China may be great at building and duplicating but they haven't yet demonstrated how to do this from scratch.

pault 8y ago
They can learn how to manufacture high quality products for the global market easier than the US can grow a billion people. Food for thought.
- vl 8y ago
  US can grow to a billion+ people easily, it's just standard of living would be abysmal.
  - beamatronic 8y ago
    It just occurred to me that under extreme circumstances the US could force a worldwide brain drain overnight by relaxing immigration standards to allow anyone with a college degree on a fast track to a green card.
    - khuey 8y ago
      If our political system were run by cold-blooded technocrats that would be an interesting way of competing with China.
oulu2006 8y ago
I don't know why you're being down voted. It's a forgone conclusion that China was always going to push to accelerate their local semi-conductor industry irrespective of what happened to ZTE or not. Not enforcing violations of US sanctions (and the subsequent plea agreement) would have just shown China that you can piss all over any deals made with the US commerce department (further reducing their respect) -- it would not have detracted in the slightest from China's mandate to replace their dependency on foreign technology at all!
twblalock 8y ago
Every successful industrialized nation after the first one (the UK) started by copying the products of other nations. Germany was a notable early case of this. So was Japan. China did the same thing, and now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China. They are already there in software -- WeChat/WePay is a really big deal and it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies. I suspect we will soon see successful Chinese innovations in AI, semiconductors, and automobiles.
- dmix 8y ago
  > now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it. People love to over-simplify economics and make the big assumption that the historical progress seen in the west in previous eras is a repeatable system on a simple arc trajectory of advancement. But I personally believe it is as much a product of the local (work) culture, politics, and economic systems... not simply just a side-effect of the creation of a middle class. Just look at Japan. They had a great period of innovation within a particular period of chaos where the old cultural rules weren't being imposed and whole new industries were developed. Which later became crippled by a variety of forces, including most notably culture and how 'elders'/successful companies are treated like gods, while upstarts became marginalized as the larger firms became politically entrenched. Now that the systems are in place the creative class has largely been stamped out. That had little to do with Japan's particular position on some growth model but a variety of distinct local forces. This type of thing is also not just a product of industry but also academically, which we've also seen a lack of larger sweeping innovations coming out of China, instead mostly just narrower progress within existing western thought. It's entirely possible that what China is best at is these type of things, mastering these individual existing categories, optimizing them, and working harder than anyone else at them. Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones. That too seems to be a result of cultural and economic system... not simply their position within some predicable growth model which worked in the west.
  - OrganicMSG 8y ago

Arbalest 8y ago

Not probably, explicitly. That's basically the thrust of Made in China 2025.

Karishma1234 8y ago

China has a single minded focus on that. What US does is going to be irrelevant in that sense.

jjoonathan 8y ago
Yep, this isn't a card we can keep up our sleeve until it's useful. We play it now, in the near future, or never.
RachelF 8y ago
Very true. There is a very good article[1] in The Economist about this. Their conclusion: "These are all things that China is working on. America’s use of its new weapons simultaneously demonstrates its power and will hasten its relative decline." [1]https://www.economist.com/news/business/21741556-there-are-also-big-downsides-actions-against-rusal-and-zte-zap-american-officials https://www.economist.com/news/business/21741556-there-are-a...