3 ms·

> After an EMP wipes out data centers and cell phone towers If such a thing happens on a large scale there will be hundred of millions of deaths. All major cit

by 21 8y ago

> After an EMP wipes out data centers and cell phone towers If such a thing happens on a large scale there will be hundred of millions of deaths. All major cities will simply collapse. See recent articles how London can only survive for 4 days without electricity, after that there will be no food. The modern society is incredibly fragile. Everything is just in time, there are no stocks or buffers. Bitcoins will be the least of your worries in such an event. Your Krugerrands will also not be of much value. Nobody will be stupid to give you food or gas for a piece of metal.

TeMPOraL 8y ago
Yes. Exactly. That's why more and more people getting involved in scams and get-rich-schemes on a platform with superlinear and unbounded energy upkeep is something that worries me deeply. Energy and climate is something that very well may break our society.
- titzer 8y ago
  > Energy and climate is something that very well may break our society. Unfortunately, if you run almost any process that humans are doing right now that has even 1% growth, in 1000 years, that's a factor of 21000x (.5% is 146x), and we're dead. So pretty much everything has to reach an S curve and stabilize, or we are totally F'd. Population, energy usage, land usage, food, trash, inflation, everything.
  - TeMPOraL 8y ago
    That's another reason to invest in space exploration :). But yes, we should be minimizing wasteful growth where we can. Food will have to grow in lockstep with population, but the growth of trash is something we can reduce. And there's especially no need to add artificial high-growth energy sinks like cryptocurrencies to the mix.
013a 8y ago
I really think this opinion is short-sighted. And it comes from a less extreme version of the same place that 9/11 deniers operate from; normal humans don't want to naturally think about loss of control and what that loss of control would look like. So its easier to just say "if this happens we're all fucked, don't even try" There is practically no evidence in history where gold had fungible value then became worthless. Nothing else matters; everything else is conjecture, opinion, and extrapolation. Yes, we live in a very fragile society. Yes, if complete collapse happened, there would be a period of extreme chaos when millions, hundreds of millions, die. But the chaos would stabilize, barring any extenuating factors like a T-Virus. And in that world, maybe US Dollars would still hold some value. History says Gold probably will. Bitcoin though? Bitcoin requires a global network of miners. It would require having access to the original blockchain that gives your wallet value. In the best likelihood, the currency would splinter into every small network that can still run miners. And when energy is so expensive that you need all of it to power your lights, vehicles, and medical equipment, why would anyone spend it on an expensive mining rig, even if all the complex computer equipment necessary to make it run were widely available? And then a guy walks into town with a bag full of gold. Suddenly Bitcoin isn't looking all that valuable as a currency. I'll sell my extra food to the guy with the gold, because the guy with antibiotics down the street would also sell to the guy with the gold, and the guy in the town over with car parts would also sell to the guy with the gold. That's what makes currency work; people, not software.
- 21 8y ago
  That guy with a bag full of gold will most likely not be the one who had that bag of gold when chaos erupted, that was my point. Those who survive the chaos will be the ones strong enough and ruthless enough to organize themselves into powerful gangs. The nerd with a bag of gold will most likely be killed and it's gold stolen. Being a prepper with an underground bunker will also not be of much value, you will just be seiged out. If you are rich, what you'll need is a small private army to protect you, a small working force to feed you and the army, and the political skills to be able to enter into the right alliance after that.

by 21 8y ago

TeMPOraL 8y ago

Yes. Exactly. That's why more and more people getting involved in scams and get-rich-schemes on a platform with superlinear and unbounded energy upkeep is something that worries me deeply. Energy and climate is something that very well may break our society.

titzer 8y ago
> Energy and climate is something that very well may break our society. Unfortunately, if you run almost any process that humans are doing right now that has even 1% growth, in 1000 years, that's a factor of 21000x (.5% is 146x), and we're dead. So pretty much everything has to reach an S curve and stabilize, or we are totally F'd. Population, energy usage, land usage, food, trash, inflation, everything.
- TeMPOraL 8y ago
  That's another reason to invest in space exploration :). But yes, we should be minimizing wasteful growth where we can. Food will have to grow in lockstep with population, but the growth of trash is something we can reduce. And there's especially no need to add artificial high-growth energy sinks like cryptocurrencies to the mix.

013a 8y ago

I really think this opinion is short-sighted. And it comes from a less extreme version of the same place that 9/11 deniers operate from; normal humans don't want to naturally think about loss of control and what that loss of control would look like. So its easier to just say "if this happens we're all fucked, don't even try" There is practically no evidence in history where gold had fungible value then became worthless. Nothing else matters; everything else is conjecture, opinion, and extrapolation. Yes, we live in a very fragile society. Yes, if complete collapse happened, there would be a period of extreme chaos when millions, hundreds of millions, die. But the chaos would stabilize, barring any extenuating factors like a T-Virus. And in that world, maybe US Dollars would still hold some value. History says Gold probably will. Bitcoin though? Bitcoin requires a global network of miners. It would require having access to the original blockchain that gives your wallet value. In the best likelihood, the currency would splinter into every small network that can still run miners. And when energy is so expensive that you need all of it to power your lights, vehicles, and medical equipment, why would anyone spend it on an expensive mining rig, even if all the complex computer equipment necessary to make it run were widely available? And then a guy walks into town with a bag full of gold. Suddenly Bitcoin isn't looking all that valuable as a currency. I'll sell my extra food to the guy with the gold, because the guy with antibiotics down the street would also sell to the guy with the gold, and the guy in the town over with car parts would also sell to the guy with the gold. That's what makes currency work; people, not software.

21 8y ago
That guy with a bag full of gold will most likely not be the one who had that bag of gold when chaos erupted, that was my point. Those who survive the chaos will be the ones strong enough and ruthless enough to organize themselves into powerful gangs. The nerd with a bag of gold will most likely be killed and it's gold stolen. Being a prepper with an underground bunker will also not be of much value, you will just be seiged out. If you are rich, what you'll need is a small private army to protect you, a small working force to feed you and the army, and the political skills to be able to enter into the right alliance after that.