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This is a classic case of statistics being useless. Are we actually supposed to avoid falling in love because of this negative effect? It's like knowing that 5

by lukev 16y ago

This is a classic case of statistics being useless. Are we actually supposed to avoid falling in love because of this negative effect? It's like knowing that 50% of marriages end up in divorce. True, and damn irrelevant when trying to decide if you should propose or not. Individual marriages have either a 100% or 0% chance of success, and calculating the probability of those outcomes is not greatly informed by the "national average."

philwelch 16y ago
It's like knowing that 50% of marriages end up in divorce. True, and damn irrelevant when trying to decide if you should propose or not. Individual marriages have either a 100% or 0% chance of success, and calculating the probability of those outcomes is not greatly informed by the "national average." Not true at all. The subjective probability (which is all you have to make a decision from) is reflected by incomplete information, but is never 100%. But even the objective probability (as far as such a concept is even coherent) isn't either 0 or 100. It's somewhere in between. Maybe under one set of circumstances the marriage will work out perfectly, but under another set of circumstances it won't. That's random. In one possible world the husband could arrive home at 5:12 and find his wife with another man, in another possible world he arrives home at 5:17 to find his wife freshly showered. That's random, or at least stochastic enough. In one possible world a stray gamma ray gives their child leukemia and the couple grow closer by going through the experience together, in another possible world no such thing happens, the husband goes back to work shortly after the child is born and slowly becomes alienated from his wife until divorce happens. Think you have a good enough marriage that adultery or alienation aren't going to become problems? Well throw in the multitude of circumstances which can cause people to change over time, and you'll find random factors there, too.
tokenadult 16y ago
It's like knowing that 50% of marriages end up in divorce. Which is something we think we know that just isn't so, and (as you point out) is something not too relevant at the individual level. http://www.divorcereform.org/nyt05.html http://www.divorcereform.org/nyt05.html http://www.divorcereform.org/real.html http://www.divorcereform.org/real.html
vl 16y ago
I think it's might be somewhat relevant, consider this theory: it reminds reasonable person that there is a possibility of divorce, and given the high cost of divorce for at least of one parties, people might become more cautious in proposing or accepting. Ironically, potentially reducing future divorce rate by doing so. In other words, knowing this statistics may tilt people into more cautions behavior.

by lukev 16y ago

philwelch 16y ago

It's like knowing that 50% of marriages end up in divorce. True, and damn irrelevant when trying to decide if you should propose or not. Individual marriages have either a 100% or 0% chance of success, and calculating the probability of those outcomes is not greatly informed by the "national average." Not true at all. The subjective probability (which is all you have to make a decision from) is reflected by incomplete information, but is never 100%. But even the objective probability (as far as such a concept is even coherent) isn't either 0 or 100. It's somewhere in between. Maybe under one set of circumstances the marriage will work out perfectly, but under another set of circumstances it won't. That's random. In one possible world the husband could arrive home at 5:12 and find his wife with another man, in another possible world he arrives home at 5:17 to find his wife freshly showered. That's random, or at least stochastic enough. In one possible world a stray gamma ray gives their child leukemia and the couple grow closer by going through the experience together, in another possible world no such thing happens, the husband goes back to work shortly after the child is born and slowly becomes alienated from his wife until divorce happens. Think you have a good enough marriage that adultery or alienation aren't going to become problems? Well throw in the multitude of circumstances which can cause people to change over time, and you'll find random factors there, too.

tokenadult 16y ago

It's like knowing that 50% of marriages end up in divorce. Which is something we think we know that just isn't so, and (as you point out) is something not too relevant at the individual level. http://www.divorcereform.org/nyt05.html http://www.divorcereform.org/nyt05.html http://www.divorcereform.org/real.html http://www.divorcereform.org/real.html

vl 16y ago

I think it's might be somewhat relevant, consider this theory: it reminds reasonable person that there is a possibility of divorce, and given the high cost of divorce for at least of one parties, people might become more cautious in proposing or accepting. Ironically, potentially reducing future divorce rate by doing so. In other words, knowing this statistics may tilt people into more cautions behavior.