The irony beeing that iran, culturally is much closer to the west then all those "natural" allies in the region except israel. The few iranians i met where quit

The irony beeing that iran, culturally is much closer to the west then all those "natural" allies in the region except israel. The few iranians i met where quite open minded, scientific endavouring and driven people. Very creative. They even have that messianic martyr streak that makes for such nice founder stories. "For one year we suffered, wearing the cross of 16 h days- and then my company died, but on the third day, i pivoted and it ressurrected." the pull through narrative of the champions. Iran is one huge memorial for top-down modernization gone wrong along with turkey and i presume very soon - saudi arabia. Turns out- that when some cruel elite percived as a outsider force inserts a ideology, the people will reject it quite violently and ralley behind whatever oppossition available. The iran nuclear deal was a attempt to contain and prevent a local nuclear arms race. Which now will go into full gear i presume- israel has nukes, saudi arabia and iran will want them too - or at least join some retaliation strike pact like NATO. Which can be provided by any major nuclear force in the region. So lots of diplomats currently travelling and offering nuclear umbrellas. The colonial era drawn states dissolve and entitys alligned by culture/religion re-appear. What remains are some mixed out of the way clusters for minoritys, a small kurdistan, syria and a very large iran(including most of the former iraq) with some proxy states, and a wahabi- power block. Turkey will be cut off from the wahabi-block and get stuck in something similar to vietnam. Lots of the players will go for nukes to cement there conquered territories and enjoy the status of North Korea - in particular since the US seem to be on its way out into isolationism. Russia supports iran currently by accident. Israel has chosen the lesser competent evil as ally and supports saudi arabia against iran- although the very same saudi arabia still propels most the religious narrative of the islamic oppossition to israels existance. Its a great game, and the west is actually percived by now as a unreliable buisness-partner and dangerous - often absent replacable ally. A good coherent strategy would be for the west to force its actual allies - not by propaganda or current ruler, but by cultural development direction( israel, kurds, iran) into a coherent block and leave the rest of the region to do what it always does, repeat past mistakes. PS: North africa is turning into a bunch of warlords playing europe for ressources and bribes in return for holding refugees back.